À un mois et demi de l’élection présidentielle, la Libye compte sept candidats déclarés. Les candidatures les plus remarquées et controversées sont évidemment celles de Saïf al-Islam, fils de l’ancien dirigeant Mouammar Kadhafi, et celle de Khalifa Haftar, l’homme fort de l’est du pays, qui était à la tête de l’autoproclamée Armée nationale libyenne. La campagne électorale est bel et bien lancée.
Ce début de semaine a été riche en rebondissements pour les Libyens. Parmi la première vague de candidats à l’élection présidentielle, le plus remarqué était Fathi Bachagha, l’ancien ministre de l’Intérieur du gouvernement d’union nationale. Mais les derniers à être « sortis du bois » ont su faire parler d’eux.
L’ex-maréchal Haftar s’est déclaré candidat mardi 16 novembre, et cela n’a été une surprise pour personne. Il y a quelques mois, il a demandé une dérogation du président du parlement, Aaguila Saleh, l’autorisant à quitter provisoirement le commandement de l’armée.
L’annonce de candidature de Saïf al-Islam Kadhafi, dimanche 14 novembre, a volé la vedette à Khalifa Haftar. Le cas du fils de l’ancien dirigeant Mouammar Kadhafi est compliqué. Condamné à mort par la justice libyenne pour son rôle répressif lors de la révolution de 2011, il est également recherché par la Cour pénale internationale pour les mêmes raisons.
Mais le pays s’interroge sur les candidatures à venir ou pas de deux poids lourds de la scène politique libyenne : l’actuel chef du gouvernement intérimaire, Abdel Hamid Dbeibah, et le président du Conseil présidentiel, Mohammed Menfi. Les candidats déclarés et ceux supposés le faire entretiennent de fortes rivalités. Ils incarnent des instances politiques qui s’opposent ou qui ne se reconnaissent pas entre elles.
La campagne électorale libyenne est lancée, mais la tenue des élections législatives et présidentielle est encore incertaine. Reportée une première fois, elle doit désormais avoir lieu le 24 décembre. Mais même cette date pourrait être reportée une nouvelle fois, voire même annulée. Hasni Abidi, politologue et directeur du Centre d’études et de recherche sur le monde arabe et méditerranéen (CERMAM) de Genève, explique les raisons de telles incertitudes et éclaire sur ce qu’il adviendrait de la Libye en cas de report ou d’annulation. Entretien réalisé avec Nadia Ben Mahfoudh.
Pourquoi la loi électorale libyenne a-t-elle était tant critiquée ?
Cette loi électorale est très contestée à l’ouest mais aussi dans certains pays étrangers parce qu’elle a été rédigée par la chambre à l’est et sous l’influence à la fois du président du parlement, Aguila Salah Issa – dont le mandat a échoué –, et sous le contrôle de Khalifa Haftar. Lui a voulu d’une loi électorale qui permet à des officiers militaires de revenir sur la scène politique, de se porter candidats et de revenir à la fonction militaire en cas d’échec.
Est-ce que dans ce processus qui semble avoir des difficultés à avancer, on peut quand-même voir des gagnants ?
Que l’élection se tienne ou non, Khalifa Haftar et Saïf al-Islam Kadhafi ont gagné une partie, dans la mesure où ils se positionnent comme des partisans d’un processus politique et démocratique qui commence par des élections, contrairement à ceux à l’ouest. Même si ces derniers s’opposent pour des raisons plutôt de transparence de la loi électorale. On peut dire que Saïf al-Islam et Khalifa Haftar veulent montrer à la communauté internationale et à une grande partie des Libyens qu’ils s’inscrivent dans un processus pacifique, de construction politique. En revanche, ceux qui s’opposent ne veulent pas d’opération démocratique.
Quelles seraient les conséquences d’un report ou de l’annulation des élections ?
C’est l’inconnu. Il y a un attachement, de la communauté internationale et des Nations unies, à l’organisation des élections dans les délais, c’est-à-dire le 24 décembre. Pour les pays voisins et pour la communauté internationale : comment gérer la Libye en cas d’annulation des élections ? L’option militaire est toujours posée. On sait très bien que Haftar n’a pas vraiment quitté son armée, son adjoint la dirige à l’est. Et on sait que les milices militaires à l’ouest sont intactes, dans des positions de combat en cas de dégradation de la situation.
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