Pendant des mois, le président russe Vladimir Poutine a nié vouloir attaquer l’Ukraine, mais jeudi, il a annoncé une “opération militaire spéciale” dans la région de Donbas, dans le pays. L’annonce faite en direct à la télévision a été suivie d’informations faisant état d’explosions dans la capitale ukrainienne, Kiev, ainsi que dans d’autres régions du pays.
Les dernières actions de M. Poutine interviennent quelques jours après qu’il a déchiré un accord de paix et ordonné l’envoi de troupes dans deux régions orientales tenues par les rebelles, afin, selon lui, de “maintenir la paix”.
Ces derniers mois, la Russie a déployé au moins 200 000 soldats près des frontières de l’Ukraine, et l’on craint que sa dernière action ne marque la première étape d’une nouvelle invasion. La suite des événements pourrait mettre en péril l’ensemble de la structure de sécurité de l’Europe.
Où sont envoyées les troupes russes et pourquoi ?
Lorsque la Russie a envahi l’Ukraine en 2014, les rebelles soutenus par le président Poutine se sont emparés de grandes étendues de l’est et ils combattent l’armée ukrainienne depuis lors. Un accord de paix international de Minsk a été conclu, mais le conflit se poursuit et le dirigeant russe déclare donc envoyer des troupes dans deux zones tenues par les rebelles. Le secrétaire général des Nations unies a catégoriquement rejeté l’utilisation par la Russie du terme “casques bleus”.
L’Occident pense que Moscou prépare une nouvelle invasion imminente de l’Ukraine, un pays de 44 millions d’habitants bordant à la fois la Russie et l’Union européenne. Pour commencer, des rapports font état de l’arrivée de chars dans la ville de Donetsk, contrôlée par les séparatistes, et les dernières photos satellites montrent que les troupes russes sont déployées à une courte distance des frontières de l’Ukraine.
Le président Poutine a averti l’Ukraine qu’elle serait responsable de nouvelles effusions de sang si elle ne mettait pas fin aux hostilités dans l’est du pays. Mais il y a déjà eu une série d’incidents bidons et chacun d’entre eux pourrait servir de prétexte à une attaque russe.
Quel est le problème de Poutine avec l’Ukraine ?
La Russie s’oppose depuis longtemps à ce que l’Ukraine se rapproche des institutions européennes, tant de l’OTAN que de l’UE. Aujourd’hui, M. Poutine affirme que l’Ukraine est une marionnette de l’Occident et que, de toute façon, elle n’a jamais été un véritable État.
Il exige des garanties de la part de l’Occident et de l’Ukraine qu’elle ne rejoigne pas l’OTAN, une alliance défensive de 30 pays, et que l’Ukraine se démilitarise et devienne un État neutre.
En tant qu’ancienne république soviétique, l’Ukraine a des liens sociaux et culturels profonds avec la Russie, et le russe y est largement parlé, mais depuis l’invasion de la Russie en 2014, ces relations se sont effilochées.
La Russie a attaqué l’Ukraine lorsque son président pro-russe a été déposé début 2014. La guerre dans l’est du pays a depuis fait plus de 14 000 morts.
Pourquoi la reconnaissance des zones rebelles est-elle dangereuse ?
Jusqu’à présent, ces soi-disant républiques populaires de Donetsk et de Louhansk étaient dirigées par des mandataires russes.
En vertu du décret de M. Poutine les reconnaissant comme indépendantes, les troupes russes sont pour la première fois reconnues comme stationnées sur place et elles peuvent également construire des bases militaires.
En déversant des troupes russes dans une zone où des centaines de violations du cessez-le-feu ont lieu chaque jour, le risque de guerre ouverte devient beaucoup plus élevé. Les deux zones rebelles auraient bénéficié d’un statut spécial au sein de l’Ukraine dans le cadre des accords de paix de Minsk, mais la décision de M. Poutine ne le permet pas.
La situation est d’autant plus alarmante que les deux îlots rebelles ne se contentent pas de revendiquer le territoire limité qu’ils détiennent, ils convoitent l’ensemble des régions ukrainiennes de Donetsk et de Louhansk. “Nous les avons reconnus, n’est-ce pas, et cela signifie que nous avons reconnu tous leurs documents fondateurs”, a déclaré le dirigeant russe.
La Russie a déjà préparé le terrain pour la guerre, en accusant faussement l’Ukraine d’avoir commis un “génocide” dans l’est du pays. Elle a distribué plus de 700 000 passeports dans les zones contrôlées par les rebelles, de sorte que toute action pourrait être justifiée par la protection de ses propres citoyens.
Jusqu’où ira la Russie ?
Le président Poutine pourrait se contenter de déchirer les accords de paix à l’est. Par le passé, il n’a parlé que de mesures “militaro-techniques” s’il n’obtenait pas ce qu’il voulait et Moscou a déjà insisté sur le fait qu'”il n’y a pas d’invasion russe”.
Mais les chances d’une solution diplomatique ne semblent pas bonnes et l’Occident craint qu’il n’aille plus loin. Le président américain Joe Biden a prévenu : “Nous pensons qu’ils viseront la capitale de l’Ukraine, Kiev, une ville de 2,8 millions d’innocents.”
En théorie, les forces russes pourraient avoir pour objectif de balayer l’Ukraine par l’est, le nord et le sud et tenter de renverser son gouvernement démocratiquement élu.
Elles pourraient mobiliser des troupes en Crimée, au Belarus et autour des frontières orientales de l’Ukraine.
Mais l’Ukraine a renforcé ses forces armées ces dernières années et la Russie serait confrontée à une population hostile. L’armée a fait appel à tous les réservistes âgés de 18 à 60 ans.
Le haut responsable militaire américain Mark Milley a déclaré que l’ampleur des forces russes entraînerait un scénario “horrible” avec un conflit dans les zones urbaines denses.
Le dirigeant russe a également d’autres options : peut-être une zone d’exclusion aérienne ou un blocus des ports ukrainiens, ou encore le transfert d’armes nucléaires au Belarus voisin.
Il pourrait également lancer des cyber-attaques. Les sites web du gouvernement ukrainien sont tombés en panne en janvier et deux des plus grandes banques ukrainiennes ont été touchées à la mi-février.
Que peut faire l’Occident ?
L’Occident estime que la décision de la Russie est illégale et le secrétaire général des Nations unies, António Guterres, l’a condamnée comme une violation de l’intégrité territoriale et de la souveraineté de l’Ukraine.
Mais les alliés de l’OTAN ont clairement indiqué qu’ils n’envisageaient pas d’envoyer des troupes de combat en Ukraine. En revanche, ils ont proposé à l’Ukraine des conseillers, des armes et des hôpitaux de campagne.
La principale réponse sera donc de pénaliser la Russie par des sanctions :
- L’Allemagne a suspendu l’approbation du projet russe de gazoduc Nord Stream 2, qui représente un investissement majeur pour la Russie et les entreprises européennes.
- L’Union européenne a adopté de vastes sanctions à l’encontre de 351 députés qui ont soutenu la “décision illégale” de la Russie de reconnaître les régions rebelles comme des États indépendants au Parlement.
- Les États-Unis déclarent qu’ils coupent le gouvernement russe des institutions financières occidentales et ciblent les “élites” de haut rang.
- Le Royaume-Uni cible cinq grandes banques russes et trois milliardaires.
Des sanctions plus importantes sont gardées en réserve.
Les États-Unis s’intéressent aux institutions financières et aux industries clés de la Russie ; l’Union européenne se concentre sur l’accès de la Russie aux marchés financiers et le Royaume-Uni a prévenu que “ceux qui sont au Kremlin et dans son entourage n’auront nulle part où se cacher”, en imposant des restrictions sur l’accès des entreprises russes au dollar et à la livre.
Le coup économique ultime serait de déconnecter le système bancaire russe du système de paiement international Swift. Mais cela pourrait avoir de graves répercussions sur les économies américaine et européenne.
Entre-temps, 5 000 soldats de l’OTAN ont été déployés dans les États baltes et en Pologne. 4 000 autres pourraient être envoyés en Roumanie, en Bulgarie, en Hongrie et en Slovaquie.
Que veut Poutine ?
La Russie a parlé d’un “moment de vérité” dans la refonte de sa relation avec l’OTAN et a mis en avant trois exigences.
Premièrement, elle veut un engagement juridiquement contraignant selon lequel l’OTAN ne s’étendra pas davantage. “Pour nous, il est absolument obligatoire de veiller à ce que l’Ukraine ne devienne jamais, au grand jamais, membre de l’OTAN”, a déclaré le vice-ministre des affaires étrangères, Sergei Ryabkov.
M. Poutine s’est plaint que la Russie n’avait “plus aucun endroit où se retirer – pensent-ils que nous allons rester les bras croisés ?”.
En 1994, la Russie a signé un accord pour respecter l’indépendance et la souveraineté de l’Ukraine indépendante.
Mais l’année dernière, le président Poutine a écrit un long texte décrivant les Russes et les Ukrainiens comme “une seule nation”, et il affirme maintenant que l’Ukraine moderne a été entièrement créée par la Russie communiste. Il considère l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en décembre 1991 comme la “désintégration de la Russie historique”.
Le président Poutine a également affirmé que si l’Ukraine rejoignait l’OTAN, l’alliance pourrait tenter de reprendre la Crimée.
Ses autres exigences fondamentales sont que l’OTAN ne déploie pas “d’armes de frappe près des frontières de la Russie” et qu’elle retire ses forces et ses infrastructures militaires des États membres qui ont rejoint l’alliance depuis 1997.
Cela signifie l’Europe centrale, l’Europe de l’Est et les pays baltes. En réalité, la Russie souhaite que l’Otan revienne à ses frontières d’avant 1997.
Que dit l’OTAN ?
L’OTAN est une alliance défensive avec une politique d’ouverture aux nouveaux membres, et ses 30 États membres sont catégoriques : cela ne changera pas.
Le président ukrainien a demandé des “délais clairs et réalistes” pour rejoindre l’OTAN, mais il n’y a aucune chance que cela se produise avant longtemps, comme l’a clairement indiqué le chancelier allemand.
L’idée qu’un pays membre actuel de l’OTAN renonce à son adhésion ne tient pas la route.
Aux yeux du président Poutine, l’Occident a promis en 1990 que l’OTAN ne s’étendrait “pas d’un pouce à l’est”, mais il l’a fait quand même.
C’était avant l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique, cependant, et la promesse faite au président soviétique de l’époque, Mikhaïl Gorbatchev, ne faisait référence à l’Allemagne de l’Est que dans le contexte d’une Allemagne réunifiée.
M. Gorbatchev a déclaré plus tard que “le sujet de l’expansion de l’OTAN n’avait jamais été abordé” à l’époque.
Existe-t-il une issue diplomatique ?
Apparemment pas pour le moment, puisque la France et les États-Unis ont annulé les entretiens prévus avec le ministre russe des affaires étrangères. Mais la France et l’Allemagne affirment que la possibilité d’un dialogue est ouverte.
Tout accord éventuel devrait couvrir à la fois la guerre à l’Est et le contrôle des armes.
Les États-Unis ont proposé d’entamer des discussions sur la limitation des missiles à courte et moyenne portée ainsi que sur un nouveau traité sur les missiles intercontinentaux. La Russie souhaitait que toutes les armes nucléaires américaines soient interdites au-delà de leurs territoires nationaux.
La Russie s’est montrée positive à l’égard d’un “mécanisme de transparence” proposé pour les contrôles mutuels des bases de missiles – deux en Russie, et deux en Roumanie et en Pologne.
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