Le gouvernement sud-africain a déclaré l’état de catastrophe dans une zone de l’est du pays frappée par de graves inondations la semaine dernière, qui ont fait près de 400 morts et causé d’importants dégâts aux habitations et aux entreprises.
La plupart des destructions ont eu lieu dans la région de Durban, dans la province du KwaZulu-Natal, la troisième ville la plus peuplée du pays.
Le président Cyril Ramaphosa affirme que la catastrophe “fait partie du changement climatique”, mais certains habitants ont imputé l’ampleur des inondations aux infrastructures insuffisantes.
Quel rôle le changement climatique a-t-il joué ?
Le système météorologique qui a déclenché les inondations a entraîné des précipitations de plus de 300 mm sur une période de 24 heures le 11 avril.
C’est beaucoup plus que par rapport aux précédents épisodes de graves inondations. En 2019, 165 mm sont tombés le 22 avril et en 2017, 108 mm ont été enregistrés le 10 octobre.
La quantité de pluie qui est tombée lundi correspondait à environ 75% des précipitations annuelles moyennes de l’Afrique du Sud – et aurait entraîné une certaine forme d’inondation sans aucun autre facteur contributif, selon les experts.
Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, de l’Université de KwaZulu-Natal, a déclaré que le temps était typique du type de temps qui se développe au large des côtes de l’Afrique du Sud, avec de l’air chaud chargé d’humidité qui arrive de l’océan Indien.
Selon lui, le relief vallonné de cette région de l’Afrique du Sud signifie également que l’air s’élève et, ce faisant, se refroidit et forme des nuages de pluie.
Le service météorologique sud-africain (SAWS) explique que la quantité de pluie était “de l’ordre des valeurs normalement associées aux cyclones tropicaux”.
Il estime qu’il n’est pas correct d’attribuer des événements météorologiques individuels se produisant sur des échelles de temps courtes à des tendances à plus long terme, telles que le réchauffement climatique.
Mais les experts du SAWS affirment que les phénomènes météorologiques graves et extrêmes deviennent plus fréquents et plus extrêmes en raison du changement climatique.
“En d’autres termes, on peut s’attendre à juste titre à ce que des épisodes de fortes pluies, tels que l’incident actuel, se reproduisent à l’avenir et à une fréquence accrue”, indique l’agence.
Un rapport récemment publié par des scientifiques, qui s’est penché sur les tempêtes survenues en Afrique australe au début de l’année 2022, indique que les précipitations extrêmes dans la région deviennent plus fréquentes en raison du réchauffement climatique.
Mais il ajoute que “la contribution précise du changement climatique… n’a pas pu être quantifiée, en raison de l’absence d’enregistrements historiques complets des précipitations”.
Les mauvaises infrastructures sont-elles aussi à blâmer ?
Certains habitants ont imputé la responsabilité de la catastrophe à l’état des infrastructures locales, citant l’absence de progrès dans l’amélioration des systèmes de drainage, ainsi que le renforcement des routes et les logements mal construits.
Le maire de Durban, Mxolisi Kaunda, a rejeté les suggestions selon lesquelles l’infrastructure de drainage de la ville est à blâmer, mais il a souligné le fait que certaines maisons ont été construites sur des collines escarpées sans fondations solides.
“L’un des facteurs de cette [catastrophe] est un glissement de terrain dans ces zones”, dit-il.
La région de Durban est vallonnée et disséquée par des gorges et des rivières, et il est vrai que les coteaux sont parfois sujets à des glissements de terrain.
Mais les experts affirment que si le terrain est un facteur contributif, les mauvaises infrastructures urbaines sont également à blâmer.
“La combinaison de ce terrain accidenté et de la médiocrité des infrastructures sont des facteurs du problème d’inondation que connaît la ville”, explique Hope Magidimisha-Chipungu, experte en urbanisme de l’université du KwaZulu-Natal.
“Certaines de ces infrastructures sont anciennes – elles ont dépassé leur durée de vie et doivent être remplacées.
Selon elle, environ un quart de la population de la ville vit dans des quartiers informels – des constructions non planifiées qui ont été bâties sur des terrains vacants puis étendues, et qui sont généralement construites avec des matériaux de mauvaise qualité.
“Les matériaux utilisés pour construire les maisons… ne parviennent pas à tenir les éléments météorologiques à distance, d’où l’effondrement des maisons et la perte de vies humaines dans certains cas”, dit-elle.
Des quartiers d’habitat informel urbains en pleine expansion
La population de la région de Durban a augmenté après la fin du système d’apartheid dans les années 1990. Auparavant, la résidence dans la ville était réservée aux Blancs.
Entre 1996 et 2001, les données officielles montrent que la population de la municipalité a augmenté de 2,3 % sur la période de cinq ans. Le taux de croissance de la population a ensuite ralenti, mais la ville a continué
Cela a exercé une pression sur l’infrastructure existante, qui n’a pas réussi à suivre.
Gina Ziervogel, spécialiste de l’adaptation au changement climatique à l’université du Cap, explique que les autorités ont tenté de relever certains des défis posés par les risques du changement climatique.
Mais elle estime que davantage de ressources sont nécessaires, compte tenu des infrastructures anciennes et défaillantes de la région et des nouveaux défis posés par des conditions météorologiques plus extrêmes.
BBCAfrique
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