Rémy RUGIRA
Les Ukrainiens ont récemment réalisé d’importantes percées sur le front russe dans l’est du pays. La reconquête de Koupiansk notamment, montre l’évolution du rapport de force sur les lignes de front, qui sont restées figées une bonne partie de l’été.
Fin août, déjà, les forces de Kiev ont lancé une offensive dans le sud du pays, dans la région de Kherson. Cette ville se situe à quelques dizaines de kilomètres du territoire de la Crimée, annexée par la Russie en 2014. Ce dédoublement du front pourrait jouer en faveur de l’Ukraine.
En tout, l’armée affirme avoir, ce dimanche matin, repris plus de 3000km² aux forces russes. “À Kharkiv, nous sommes à 50km de la frontière”, affirme le chef de l’armée dans un communiqué. Sur les cartes de BFMTV, on peut voir les régions visées par les contre-offensives ukrainiennes. Compte tenu de l’évolution rapide des lignes de front, elles sont peut-être déjà dépassées.
Guerre en Ukraine: où en est la contre-offensive de Kiev?
“Ce que les Ukrainiens essayent de jouer, c’est la dislocation. Fin août, ils ont lancé une offensive dans le sud, qui n’a finalement pas été extraordinaire […]. En réalité, ça leur a permis de faire revenir une grande partie des forces russes, et au moment où elles se sont déplacées, elles ont attaqué vers le nord”__Guillaume Ancel, ancien officier de l’Armée française.
Les Ukrainiens s’exposent à leur tour à une contre-offensive
Cette tactique pourrait permettre aux soldats de l’armée ukrainienne de continuer à progresser. “S’ils arrivent à s’interpénétrer dans les forces russes, les Russes ne peuvent pas lancer de contre-offensive, car ils ne peuvent pas utiliser leur artillerie”, ajoute Guillaume Ancel.
L’armée ukrainienne assure avoir repris Koupiansk et Izioum, deux pôles ferroviaires importants aux portes du Donbass. Mais il faut rester prudent selon Guillaume Ancel: “[Le retrait des troupes russes] concède une victoire aux Ukrainiens, mais ils vont peut-être devoir affronter une artillerie dix fois plus puissante que la leur” avertit Guillaume Ancel.
Il faut aussi s’attendre à une réaction du président russe, Vladimir Poutine. Cette défaite pourrait écorner son image d’autorité et la réussite affichée de son “opération spéciale”. “Forcément, il va tenter quelque chose”, assure l’ancien officier.
Selon lui, le président russe pourrait tenter d’employer une “arme de très grande puissance” pour tenter de tuer le président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky et de désorganiser le commandement ukrainien.
S’exprimant lors d’un événement aux États-Unis, Colin Kahl – le sous-secrétaire à la défense pour la politique – a laissé entendre que les forces ukrainiennes obtenaient de meilleurs résultats que les troupes russes dans certaines zones.
“Ce sont les premiers jours. Je pense que les Ukrainiens font des progrès lents mais significatifs. Et nous verrons comment les choses se déroulent”, a-t-il déclaré, cité par l’agence de presse Reuters.”Mais je pense certainement que les choses vont mieux du côté ukrainien en ce moment dans le sud que du côté russe”.
La situation reste toutefois tendue.
Dans sa mise à jour nocturne, l’état-major ukrainien a déclaré mercredi avoir “repoussé toutes les attaques russes” dans les régions de Kharkiv et de Donetsk – mais les deux parties ont continué à échanger des tirs d’artillerie et des frappes aériennes, endommageant une douzaine d’endroits différents.
Le président Zelensky a également déclaré mercredi que le budget national de l’Ukraine pour l’année prochaine serait celui d’un pays en guerre, avec plus de mille milliards de hryvnias (27 milliards de dollars ; 23,5 milliards de livres sterling) consacrés à la défense.
Mais il a promis que les principales dispositions sociales telles que les pensions seraient maintenues.
Cependant, “il est nécessaire de réduire autant que possible toutes les dépenses non critiques”, a-t-il averti – “tout ce qui ne contribue pas à la défense, ne contribue pas au développement économique du pays, à la fourniture sociale et culturelle de notre peuple”.
Par ailleurs, les observateurs des États-Unis et de l’ONU se sont inquiétés du sort des civils en Ukraine alors que la guerre se poursuit.
Un haut responsable des droits de l’homme de l’ONU a déclaré que l’organisation était préoccupée par le déplacement des personnes en Ukraine – et en particulier par le sort des enfants.
“Il existe des allégations crédibles de transferts forcés d’enfants non accompagnés vers des territoires occupés par la Russie, ou vers la Fédération de Russie elle-même”, a averti Ilze Brands Kehris, sous-secrétaire général aux droits de l’homme.
Son agence est préoccupée par le fait que la Russie a créé “une procédure simplifiée” pour donner à ces enfants la citoyenneté russe, et potentiellement les faire adopter par des familles russes, explique-t-elle.
De tels déplacements constitueraient une violation de la Convention de Genève, ajoute-t-elle.
Mercredi également, les États-Unis se sont dits préoccupés par un déplacement forcé similaire d’Ukrainiens, mais d’adultes.
Le département d’État a accusé le Kremlin de disposer de listes d’Ukrainiens à déplacer de force dans les zones du pays sous contrôle russe dans le cadre de ce qu’il appelle des “opérations de filtrage”.
“Le filtrage est un mot déshumanisant, qui décrit une campagne massive que le Kremlin a lancée pour emprisonner, expulser de force ou faire disparaître les citoyens ukrainiens que Moscou juge être une menace potentielle”, explique le porte-parole Vedant Patel.
“Les victimes du filtrage n’ont d’autre choix que de se soumettre ou de faire face à de terribles conséquences”.
Il décrit le système comme une opération à grande échelle et avancée, impliquant des technologies telles que la reconnaissance faciale et le suivi téléphonique – et affirme que les États-Unis avaient des preuves liant les responsables du Kremlin au projet.
Toutefois, l’ambassadeur russe auprès des Nations unies, Vasily Nebenzya, indique que les Ukrainiens qui se rendent en Russie se soumettent simplement à une procédure d’enregistrement.
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