Le variant Omicron arrive progressivement en Europe depuis qu’il a été découvert en Afrique australe. De nombreux pays, en Europe et ailleurs dans le monde, se ferment aux vols en provenance d’Afrique australe et les annonces de découvertes de cas positifs se multiplient comme au Portugal ce matin, lundi 29 novembre. Ces annonces génèrent une anxiété concernant un variant du Covid-19 sur lequel on a finalement encore peu d’informations.
En l’espace de dix jours, le nombre de nouveaux cas quotidiens en Afrique du Sud est passé de 270 à plus de 1 800. Une multiplication par 7 dont serait responsable le nouveau variant Omicron. Un chiffre impressionnant qui fait trembler le monde entier, mais qui ne nous apprend pas grand-chose.
En effet, malgré cette augmentation, le nombre de contaminations reste relativement faible : il est donc difficile de déterminer si c’est une plus grande transmissibilité du variant qui en est responsable ou s’il a tout simplement profité d’une sorte d’effet d’aubaine.
Pour la même raison, on ne peut pas encore déterminer si Omicron provoque un Covid-19 plus ou moins grave que Delta. D’autant plus que les premiers cas détectés concernaient des étudiants, une classe d’âge peu encline aux formes graves.
Enfin, concernant l’efficacité de l’immunité, qu’elle soit acquise après vaccination ou infection, le problème est le même : on manque de données et de recul.
Dès lors, pourquoi ce vent de panique mondial ? La raison se trouve du côté de la génétique : l’analyse des mutations portées par Omicron montre qu’elles sont très nombreuses et pourraient théoriquement le rendre plus contagieux. Mais encore une fois, pour l’instant, personne ne peut l’affirmer, seul le temps apportera la réponse.
Fermer les frontières ? C’est vain…
L’Afrique du Sud, où a été détecté le nouveau variant du Covid-19 baptisé Omicron, a jugé ce lundi « triste » et « regrettable » que certains pays africains suivent le vent de panique et imposent des restrictions de voyage sur le continent.
Si fermer les frontières peut permettre de ralentir la diffusion de ce variant, cela ne l’empêchera pas de circuler, selon Patrick Berche, microbiologiste et ancien directeur de l’institut Pasteur de Lille, au micro de Marine Salaville du service science de RFI.
« Si ce variant a un avenir épidémiologique, en quelque sorte, rien ne l’arrêtera. Les gens peuvent passer par d’autres frontières et parvenir sur le territoire européen ou en France. Donc, il ne sera pas arrêté de cette façon. Mais on ne voit pas comment un gouvernement pourrait échapper à cette mesure, sans être très fortement critiqué. » La fermeture des frontières est toujours une « mesure illusoire »,poursuit Patrick Berche, qui « pense qu’il est déjà implanté en Europe ». En revanche, fermer les frontières ralentit sa circulation.
« Il ne faut pas non plus avoir un discours trop anxiogène. Pour le moment, c’est un virus qui semble circuler assez rapidement, dans une population sud-africaine peu vaccinée et qui a beaucoup de personnes immunodéprimées. Donc, on ne peut pas savoir, pour le moment, quel va être l’avenir épidémiologique de cette souche. »
Muter, c’est dans sa nature
D’autant que s’il est normal que les virus changent leur information génétique, toutes les mutations ne donnent pas lieu à de nouveaux variants. « Par définition, ce virus mute sans arrêt, poursuit Patrick Berche. Donc, ce n’est pas du tout étonnant qu’on ait de nombreuses mutations. La plupart n’ont pas de conséquences. Elles sont supplantées par un variant qui est en avance, en quelque sorte. C’est un processus évolutionniste, “Darwinien”, comme on dit dans notre jargon, qui permet aux plus forts de supplanter les autres. »
Certaines conditions, comme une charge virale plus élevée, doivent être respectées. « Le virus va chercher à tout prix à survivre. Donc, quand on vaccine, on va empêcher la circulation du virus et le virus va essayer de trouver de nouveaux moyens de contaminer les gens. Pour cela, il va, par exemple, dans le cas du variant Delta, augmenter la dose infectante. C’est-à-dire que s’il y a beaucoup plus de virus dans la salive, vous allez être beaucoup plus contagieux et donc ce variant-là va pouvoir survivre. »
source:RFI
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