Texte anglais de David Himbara traduit en français par Afriquela1ère
Lettre du Rwanda
Murunganwa alias Himbara, s’il vous plaît, confirmez vos affirmations selon lesquelles le dernier rapport du Rwanda par le FMI était sombre. Au contraire, l’examen de notre pays par le FMI a été très positif. Pour citer le FMI, « la croissance économique du Rwanda est restée robuste ». C’est pourquoi le FMI nous soutient avec un crédit de 268 millions de dollars. Que répondez-vous à cela ?
Ma réponse à la lettre du Rwanda
Le Fonds monétaire international a annoncé le 14 décembre 2023 qu’il avait approuvé un crédit de confirmation de 268 millions de dollars pour le Rwanda. L’examen du FMI révèle que le régime du général Paul Kagame est assis sur une poudrière, incapable de faire avancer son programme de développement. L’aide étrangère et les prêts bonifiés des donateurs ont diminué, ce qui a entraîné un resserrement des financements. Les réserves internationales diminuent ; 4) et les perspectives restent baissières : la situation au Rwanda risque plus de se détériorer que de s’améliorer. Laissons le FMI parler de lui-même
« Les déséquilibres macroéconomiques se sont intensifiés. La marge de manœuvre dont disposent les pouvoirs publics pour faire progresser les objectifs de développement a été limitée par la diminution des marges de manœuvre des pouvoirs publics… Le déclin structurel des financements concessionnels extérieurs a pesé sur le niveau des réserves internationales… La balance des risques pesant sur les perspectives reste orientée à la baisse… Un resserrement du financement pèserait sur les perspectives.
En d’autres termes, 1) le régime est incapable de faire avancer son programme de développement ; 2) l’aide étrangère et les prêts bonifiés des donateurs ont diminué, ce qui a entraîné un resserrement des financements ; 3) les réserves internationales diminuent ; 4) et les perspectives restent baissières : la situation au Rwanda risque plus de se détériorer que de s’améliorer.
Quelles en sont les implications ?
Le plus inquiétant est l’impact des prix élevés des denrées alimentaires sur les personnes qui ont du mal à nourrir leur famille. La Banque mondiale classe le Rwanda parmi les dix pays les plus durement touchés par l’inflation alimentaire.
Saviez-vous que l’Institut national de la statistique du Rwanda a signalé une augmentation de 53 % des prix des produits frais ? Cela signifie que les aliments de base rwandais, notamment les bananes plantains, les légumineuses, les patates douces, les haricots et le manioc, sont hors de portée des 50 % de Rwandais qui vivent avec moins de 2 dollars par jour.
Suis-je coupable d’avoir mal interprété l’examen du 14 décembre 2023 par le FMI de la situation économique actuelle du Rwanda ? Laissons le lecteur en juger. Restez avec nous.
Éducateur, auteur et consultant en développement socio-économique et gouvernance. Chercheur affilié au New College, Université de Toronto, Canada.
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