Uburusiya bufite bamwe mu basirikare benshi cyane kandi bakomeye cyane ku isi, ariko ibyo ntibirigaragaza mu ntangiriro y’igitero cyabwo kuri Ukraine. Abasesenguzi mu bya gisirikare benshi b’i Burayi n’Amerika batunguwe n’uburyo igisirikare cyabwo kugeza ubu cyitwaye ku rugamba, umwe muri bo avuga ko cyitwaye “nabi cyane”.
Gutera imbere ku rugamba kwabwo bisa nkaho ahanini byahagaze ndetse bamwe ubu baribaza niba igisirikare cy’Uburusiya gishobora kuzahuka nyuma y’ibyo cyatakaje. Muri iki cyumweru, umutegetsi wo hejuru wo mu muryango w’ubwirinzi bwa gisirikare bw’Uburayi n’Amerika (OTAN/NATO) yabwiye BBC ko “biraboneka ko Abarusiya bataragera ku ntego zabo kandi birashoboka ko bizarangira batazigezeho”.
None byapfiriye hehe? Navuganye n’abasirikare bo ku rwego rwo hejuru b’i Burayi n’Amerika hamwe na ba maneko, ku makosa Uburusiya bwakoze.
Kwishyiramo ibitari ukuri
Ikosa rya mbere Uburusiya bwakoze ni uguha agaciro gacyeya imbaraga zo kwirwanaho n’ubushobozi bw’ingabo za Ukraine zisanzwe ari nkeya ku z’Uburusiya.
Uburusiya ku mwaka mu bya gisirikare bukoresha ingengo y’imari ya miliyari zirenga 60 z’amadolari y’Amerika, ugereranyije na Ukraine ikoresha gusa arenga gato miliyari 4 z’amadolari y’Amerika.
Nanone, Uburusiya, n’abandi benshi, bisa nkaho bakabirije imbaraga z’igisirikare cyabwo.
Perezida Vladimir Putin yashyizeho gahunda irimo kwiyemeza cyane yo gutuma igisirikare cy’Uburusiya kijyana n’ibihe bigezweho ndetse na we ashobora kuba yaragezeho akemera ugukabya kwe.
Umusirikare w’Ubwongereza wo ku rwego rwo hejuru yavuze ko ryinshi mu ishoramari Uburusiya bwarikoze mu ntwaro kirimbuzi za nikleyeri nyinshi zabwo ndetse no mu kuzigerageza, ibyo birimo no gukora intwaro nshya nka za misile zo mu bwoko bwa ‘hypersonic’ (zigenda ku muvuduko ukubye inshuro eshanu umuvuduko w’ijwi).
Bifatwa ko Uburusiya bwakoze igifaru cya mbere giteye imbere cyane ku isi – cyitwa T-14 Armata. Ariko nubwo mu gihe gishize cyabonetse mu karasisi ka gisirikare mu gace ka Red Square i Moscow, ntikiraboneka ku rugamba. Byinshi mu bifaru Uburusiya bwajyanye mu ntambara ni ibimaze igihe kinini kurushaho byo mu bwoko bwa T-72, ibifaru bitwara abasirikare n’ibikoresho byabo, imbunda za rutura ndetse n’izirasa ibisasu bya rokete.
Mu ntangiriro y’igitero, Uburusiya bwarutaga Ukraine ku buryo buboneka ku bijyanye no mu kirere, aho indege z’intambara bwari bwegereje umupaka zarutaga ubwinshi iza Ukraine ku kigero cy’indege zirenga eshatu kuri buri ndege imwe ya Ukraine. Benshi mu basesengura ibya gisirikare bibwiraga ko igisirikare cyateye cyari guhita kirusha imbaraga Ukraine mu kirere, ariko ntikirabigeraho. Ubwirinzi bwo mu kirere bwa Ukraine buracyagaragaza ko bukirimo gutanga umusaruro, bukagabanya ubushobozi bw’Uburusiya bwo gukora icyo bwishakiye.
Uburusiya bushobora kuba bwaranibwiraga ko abasirikare bihariye babwo bazagira uruhare rw’ingenzi mu ntambara, bagashegesha Ukraine mu buryo bwihuse.
Maneko wo ku rwego rwo hejuru wo mu gihugu cyo mu burengerazuba bw’isi yabwiye BBC ko Uburusiya bwatekerezaga ko bushobora kohereza abasirikare bacye nk’abo mu mitwe yihariye ya Spetsnatz na VDV mu “kuvanaho umubare muto w’abarinzi bigahita birangirira aho”.
Ariko mu minsi micyeya ya mbere, igitero cyabo cy’indege ya kajugujugu ku kibuga cy’indege cya Hostomel, hanze gato y’umurwa mukuru Kyiv, cyasubijwe inyuma, bituma Uburusiya budashobora kugira iteme ryo mu kirere ryo gutuma buzana abasirikare n’ibikoresho.
Ahubwo, Uburusiya byabusabye gukoresha ahanini inzira yo mu muhanda mu gutwara ibikoresho byabwo. Ibi byateje umubyigano w’ibinyabiziga no kubyigana mu masangano y’imihanda, bituma byorohera igisirikare cya Ukraine kubatega imitego.
Bimwe mu bifaru biremereye byarenze imihanda, biza guhera mu byondo, byongerera imbaraga ishusho iriho y’igisirikare gifatwa nk'”icyashaye”.
Hagati aho, umurongo muremure w’ibifaru by’Uburusiya wagaragajwe n’amafoto y’ibyogajuru uva mu majyaruguru, na n’ubu wananiwe kugota Kyiv. Intambwe ikomeye cyane yatewe ni mu majyepfo, aho igisirikare cyabwo cyashoboye gukoresha inzira za gariyamoshi mu kugeza ibikoresho ku basirikare.
Minisitiri w’ingabo w’Ubwongereza Ben Wallace yabwiye BBC ko ingabo za Perezida Putin “zatakaje umuhate”.
Yagize ati: “Ziri mu gihirahiro kandi gacye gacye ariko mu buryo bwa nyabwo zirimo gupfusha [abasirikare] cyane”.
Gupfusha abasirikare n’icyizere kiri hasi
Uburusiya bwakusanyije abasirikare barenga 190,000 muri iki gitero kandi benshi muri bo bamaze gukoreshwa ku rugamba. Ariko bumaze gutakaza abagera hafi ku 10% byabo. Nta mibare ntakuka ihari y’umubare w’abo Uburusiya cyangwa Ukraine bamaze gutakaza ku rugamba. Ukraine ivuga ko imaze kwica abasirikare 14,000 b’Uburusiya, nubwo Amerika igereranya ko bishoboka ko ari kimwe cya kabiri cy’uwo mubare.
Abategetsi b’i Burayi n’Amerika bavuga ko hari na gihamya yuko icyizere kirimo kugabanuka mu barwanyi b’Uburusiya, umwe muri abo bategetsi akaba yavuze ko “kiri hasi cyane”. Undi yavuze ko abasirikare “bakonje, bananiwe kandi bashonje” kuko bari baramaze ibyumweru bategerereje mu rubura muri Belarus no mu Burusiya mbere yuko bahabwa itegeko ryo kugaba igitero.
Uburusiya byamaze kuba ngombwa ko bufata ku bandi basirikare bo gusiba icyuho cy’abo bwatakaje, harimo no gufata ku bo mu mitwe y’inkeragutabara (abahoze mu gisirikare) yo mu burasirazuba bw’igihugu no muri Armenia. Abategetsi b’i Burayi n’Amerika bemeza ko “bishoboka cyane” ko abasirikare b’abanyamahanga bavuye muri Syria vuba aha bazinjira mu ntambara, hamwe n’abacanshuro bo mu itsinda Wagner rikora mu buryo bw’ibanga.
Umusirikare wo ku rwego rwo hejuru wo muri OTAN yavuze ko ibi ari ikimenyetso cyuko Uburusiya “burimo gukonoza mu ndiba y’ikibindi”.
Ibikoresho n’imikorere
Uburusiya bwagowe n’iby’ibanze.
Hari imvugo imaze igihe kinini ikoreshwa mu gisirikare ivuga ko abatabizi bavuga ku mayeri y’urugamba mu gihe abanyamwuga bo biga ku mikorere n’ibishoboka.
Hari gihamya igaragaza ko Uburusiya butatekereje neza kuri iyo mvugo. Imirongo y’ibifaru yashiranywe n’ibitoro, ibiryo n’amasasu. Imodoka zarapfuye zisigwa aho ngaho, nyuma yaho zikwegwa n’imodoka za Ukraine zikora imihanda.
Abategetsi b’i Burayi n’Amerika banemeza ko Uburusiya bushobora kuba burimo gushiranwa n’ibikoresho bya gisirikare bimwe na bimwe. Bumaze kurasa ibisasu biri hagati ya 850 na 900, bigera kure kandi neza neza aho byoherejwe, birimo na misile zo mu bwoko bwa ‘cruise missiles’, bigoranye cyane kubona ibibisimbura ugereranyije n’ibisasu bitayoborwa.
Abategetsi bo muri Amerika baburiye ko Uburusiya bwiyambaje Ubushinwa ngo bubufashe gucyemura ikibazo cya bimwe mu bikoresho bidahagije.
Ku rundi ruhande, intwaro zitanzwe n’Uburayi n’Amerika zikomeje kwisukiranya zijya muri Ukraine, bikaba byarongereye icyizere abasirikare bayo. Amerika imaze gutangaza ko izaha Ukraine inyongera ya miliyoni 800 z’amadolari y’ubufasha bwa gisirikare. Hamwe n’ibindi bisasu bya misile bisenya ibifaru n’ibihanura indege, byitezwe ko ubwo bufasha buzaba bunarimo indege nto zitagira umupilote (drones) zikorwa n’Amerika z'”ubwiyahuzi” (zisenyukira ku cyo zirasheho) zishobora gutwarwa mu gikapu cyo mu bitugu, mbere yuko zoherezwa gutera igisasu gito zigitera aho zoherejwe ku butaka.
Abategetsi b’i Burayi n’Amerika baracyaburira ko Perezida Putin ashobora “kongera ubugome kurushaho”. Bavuga ko agifite intwaro zihagije zishobora kurasa imijyi ya Ukraine “mu gihe kinini”.
Nubwo yahuye n’imbogamizi, maneko umwe yavuze ko Perezida Putin “ntibishoboka ko azacika intege ndetse ahubwo ashobora gukaza umurego. Birashoboka ko agifite icyizere ko Uburusiya bushobora gutsinda Ukraine mu bya gisirikare”. Kandi nubwo igisirikare cya Ukraine cyagaragaje kwihagararaho gukomeye, uwo maneko yaburiye ko mu gihe nta kongererwa ibikoresho cyane kubayeho na cyo gishobora “nyuma gushirirwa n’amasasu no mu mibare [y’abasirikare]”.
Ibintu ubu bishobora kuba ari byiza kurusha ibyibazwaga ubwo intambara yatangiraga, ariko bisa nkaho bikigoye Ukraine kuba yatsinda.
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