Alors que la majorité des pays européens, notamment le Royaume-Uni, s’appuient sur des sondages de sortie des urnes pour déclarer les vainqueurs des élections, en France, les sondeurs fondent leurs estimations sur les bulletins de vote effectivement dépouillés. Explications.
Dimanche 24 avril, comme le veut la coutume, le visage du gagnant ou de la gagnante de l’élection présidentielle – Emmanuel Macron ou Marine Le Pen – apparaîtra en direct à la télévision à 20 heures précises. Pourtant, dans les grandes villes, les bureaux de vote viendront tout juste de fermer leurs portes. Alors comment les instituts de sondage réussissent-ils à donner un vainqueur à 20 heures, alors que toutes les voix n’ont pas encore été comptabilisées ?
Contrairement au fonctionnement de la plupart des autres pays européens, les résultats communiqués à 20 heures ne sont pas des sondages réalisés à la sortie des urnes. Les sondeurs français fondent leurs estimations sur des premiers bulletins de vote qui ont bel et bien été dépouillés.
Pour ce faire, tout se joue pendant l’heure précédant l’annonce du résultat. En France métropolitaine, les bureaux de vote ferment à 19 heures dans la plupart des communes et à 20 heures dans les grandes villes, notamment à Paris et Marseille. C’est grâce à ce décalage d’une heure – qui était de deux heures lors des élections précédentes – que les instituts de sondage peuvent désigner un vainqueur.
“Ils utilisent les interviews, nous utilisons les bulletins de vote”
“La principale différence avec un sondage de sortie des urnes, c’est qu’au lieu de demander aux gens à l’extérieur du bureau de vote comment ils ont voté, nous regardons directement leurs bulletins de vote”, explique Mathieu Doiret de l’institut de sondage Ipsos, partenaire de France 24 pour l’élection présidentielle. “Cela nous oblige à attendre la fermeture des premiers bureaux de vote à 19 heures, alors que les sondages de sortie peuvent être travaillés tout au long de la journée.”
Ipsos, comme les autres instituts de sondage, envoie des enquêteurs, environ 500, dans divers bureaux de vote, choisis de manière à ce qu’ils soient représentatifs de la diversité du pays. Selon Mathieu Doiret, l’idée n’est pas tant de trouver des zones où les habitudes de vote reflètent le reste du pays, mais plutôt d’avoir des bureaux de vote qui peuvent être révélateurs de tendances. Cela peut consister, par exemple, à voir si, dans les bastions d’un candidat, on se déplace en grand nombre ou pas.
Une fois sur place, les enquêteurs appellent l’institut de sondage tous les cent bulletins dépouillés pour communiquer les résultats. Un logiciel s’occupe de centraliser toutes les données, et, en les comparant aux chiffres des élections précédentes, élabore des projections.
Au début de la soirée électorale, les instituts de sondage peuvent ainsi donner de premières estimations qui seront mises à jour au fil des heures, à mesure que le dépouillement des bulletins progressera.
“Les sondeurs britanniques, par exemple, choisissent également un échantillon représentatif de bureaux de vote et comparent les résultats avec les élections passées afin d’établir leurs projections”, compare Mathieu Doiret, dont l’institut réalise également des enquêtes au Royaume-Uni. “La seule différence réside dans le matériau primaire : ils utilisent des interviews, nous utilisons des bulletins de vote”.
Pour le spécialiste, s’appuyer sur le décompte réel des votes plutôt que sur des sondages de sortie des urnes présente certains avantages. Dans le cas britannique, les électeurs sont, par exemple, libres de ne pas vouloir dire aux enquêteurs quel bulletin ils ont déposé dans l’urne.
Un risque d’erreur ?
Jusque-là, ce système a fait ses preuves. À chaque élection, les sondeurs ont été capables de donner un résultat à 20 heures, y compris au premier tour de la présidentielle en 2002, malgré l’écart infime qui avait permis au leader d’extrême droite, Jean-Marie Le Pen, de devancer le socialiste Lionel Jospin.
“Nous n’avons pas encore vu d’instituts de sondage incapables de déclarer un vainqueur, ou les finalistes du second tour, à 20 heures”, assure Mathieu Doiret. “Il n’y a eu qu’une seule fois où il y a eu une certaine confusion, en 1974.” Cette année-là, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing l’avait emporté avec seulement 400 000 voix d’avance face à son adversaire, le plus faible écart jamais enregistré. “Mais avec l’expertise et les capacités techniques d’aujourd’hui, nous n’aurions même pas eu de telles difficultés”, assure le spécialiste.
Pour autant, une surprise ne peut être totalement exclue. C’est d’ailleurs ce qu’ont espéré certains électeurs de Jean-Luc Mélenchon au premier tour le 10 avril. À 20 heures, le candidat insoumis était crédité de 20 %. Il a finalement terminé, selon la comptabilisation officielle du ministère de l’Intérieur avec 21,95 % du total des voix exprimées.
“Les choses se compliquent lorsque les candidats font nettement mieux à un scrutin que lors des élections précédentes dans un certain type de circonscription”, explique Mathieu Doiret. “Dans le cas de Jean-Luc Mélenchon, son soutien dans les zones rurales est resté largement inchangé par rapport à 2017, mais il a bondi dans certaines zones urbaines, là où les bureaux de vote fermaient plus tard. On ne pouvait donc le savoir qu’après 20 heures, lorsque ces bureaux ont commencé à communiquer leurs résultats.”
La tentation de se fier aux médias étrangers
Si les médias attendront la fermeture des bureaux de vote pour communiquer les premières estimations dimanche, sur les réseaux sociaux, anonymes mais aussi médias belges ou suisses publieront, eux, des estimations à travers le hashtag #RadioLondres dès la fin d’après-midi, en se basant sur des sondages de sorties des urnes, justement, ou sur d’anciens sondages.
S’il peut être tentant de s’y référer, ces résultats sont souvent peu fiables. Preuve en est, il y a deux semaines, lors du premier tour du scrutin, lorsque les rumeurs parlaient d’une égalité entre Macron et Le Pen – il s’est avéré par la suite que le président sortant avait quatre points d’avance.
Et ces résultats sont aussi contraires à la loi française. Depuis vendredi à 23 h 59, jusqu’à dimanche à 20 heures, la France est dans une période de “silence électoral”. Les médias français ont donc l’interdiction de citer les candidats ou de publier des sondages d’opinion afin de ne pas influencer les électeurs. Ces règles s’appliquent aussi aux candidats et à leurs équipes, qui n’ont pas le droit de faire campagne dans les 44 heures précédant la fin du scrutin.
Dans un communiqué publié le 4 avril dernier, la Commission nationale de contrôle de la campagne électorale en vue de l’élection présidentielle, la CNCCEP et la Commission des sondages ont ainsi rappelé que la publication de résultats ou de sondages ou leur diffusion, y compris sur les réseaux sociaux, est passible d’une amende allant jusqu’à 75 000 euros.
Cet article a été traduit de l’anglais par Cyrielle Cabot.
source:France24
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