La Finlande et la Suède prêtes à un tournant majeur: l’adhésion à l’OTAN

Rémy Rugira

La Finlande a annoncé officiellement, dimanche, son intention de rejoindre l’Alliance atlantique, tandis que son voisin suédois s’apprête à prendre la même décision. Avec la guerre en Ukraine, le soutien à une intégration à l’Otan a grandi au sein des populations des deux pays, devenant très vite majoritaire.

Après des décennies passées à l’écart des alliances militaires, la Finlande a annoncé, dimanche 15 mai, sa candidature à l’Otan, et la Suède pourrait suivre. Les deux pays sont inquiets de ce que pourrait faire leur grand voisin russe, après l’invasion de l’Ukraine débutée en février.

Pendant des décennies, la plupart des Suédois et des Finlandais sont restés attachés à leur longue politique de non-alignement militaire.

Mais l’invasion de l’Ukraine le 24 février a marqué un tournant majeur, notamment pour la Finlande qui partage une frontière de près de 1 300 kilomètres avec la Russie.

Alors que le soutien à une intégration à l’Otan tournait autour de 20 à 30 % depuis 20 ans, les derniers sondages suggèrent aujourd’hui que plus de 70 % des Finlandais et 50 % des Suédois soutiennent une adhésion.

Dans les deux pays, de nombreux partis ont été ou sont en train de changer de position sur la question. Au Parlement finlandais, une majorité fleuve d’au moins 85 % en faveur de l’adhésion se dessine.

En Suède, le parti social-démocrate, historiquement opposé à rejoindre l’Otan, se prononce ce dimanche, avec un feu vert ouvrant la voie à une candidature du pays.

La “finlandisation”, neutralité forcée

Cédée par la Suède à la Russie en 1809, la Finlande proclame son indépendance de Moscou à l’occasion de la révolution bolchévique de 1917.

Envahi par l’Union soviétique en 1939, le pays résiste vaillamment lors des trois mois de la guerre d’Hiver. Après la reprise du conflit en 1941, la Finlande est contrainte à un armistice après trois ans de combats.

Au terme d’un traité “d’amitié” signé en 1948 sous la pression de Moscou, les dirigeants finlandais acceptent de rester en dehors de la coopération militaire occidentale dans une forme de neutralité forcée, restée dans l’Histoire sous le nom de “finlandisation”.

Des soldats finlandais

Le pays échappe au rang d’État satellite de l’URSS, mais reste sous l’œil de Moscou en ce qui concerne sa politique étrangère et militaire.

Après la chute de l’Union soviétique, la Finlande adhère à l’Union européenne (1995) et au Partenariat pour la paix de l’Otan, mais reste officiellement militairement non alignée.

La Suède, elle, a maintenu pendant près de deux siècles une politique officielle de neutralité héritée de la fin des guerres napoléoniennes, notamment durant les deux guerres mondiales.

Soldats suédois

Si elle a participé à des missions militaires en Afghanistan ou plus récemment au Mali, elle n’a pas été en guerre depuis un conflit en 1814 avec la Norvège.

Dans les années 1990, sa politique de neutralité est amendée en un non-alignement militaire “visant à permettre” la neutralité en cas de guerre.

Tout en restant en dehors de l’Otan, les deux pays ont tissé des liens toujours plus étroits avec l’Alliance, qui les considère désormais comme les deux États non-membres les plus proches.

Les deux pays ont ainsi participé à des missions menées par l’Otan dans les Balkans, en Afghanistan et en Irak, ainsi qu’à de nombreux exercices conjoints.

D’importants moyens consacrés à l’armée

Durant la Guerre froide, Suède et Finlande consacrent d’importants moyens (4 à 5 % de leur PIB) à leurs armées, conséquence de leur absence d’alliés militaires.

Avec la disparition de la menace soviétique, toutes deux réduisent leurs crédits, mais la Finlande maintient un recours massif au service militaire et aux réservistes.

Avec ses 5,5 millions d’habitants, la Finlande peut ainsi compter sur une armée en temps de guerre de 280 000 soldats aptes au combat, plus 600 000 autres réservistes, une force exceptionnelle pour une nation européenne.

L’armée professionnelle ne compte toutefois que 13 000 soldats, même si elle forme 22 000 conscrits chaque année.

La Suède a pour sa part davantage désinvesti, faisant passer son budget militaire de 2,6 % du PIB en 1990 à 1,2 % en 2020. Mais le pays a commencé à inverser la tendance après l’annexion de la Crimée par la Russie en 2014.

Le service militaire obligatoire, supprimé en 2010, a été réintroduit en partie en 2017. Actuellement, l’armée suédoise compte quelque 50 000 soldats, dont la moitié de réservistes. Les deux pays ont annoncé d’importants investissements militaires depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine.

Avec AFP

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