Noblesse Dusabe
La Lituanie a interdit le transit ferroviaire de certaines marchandises sur son territoire, entre la Russie et son enclave de Kaliningrad, conformément aux sanctions européennes. Moscou menace de représailles.
Kaliningrad est un morceau de Russie que l’Histoire a déposé au beau milieu de l’Union européenne. Avec l’invasion russe en Ukraine, ce territoire surarmé de 200 km² allait tôt ou tard devenir une poudrière. Et c’est la Lituanie qui a allumé la mèche : depuis le 17 juin, les trains provenant de Russie n’ont plus le droit d’acheminer du charbon, des métaux (fer, acier) et matériaux de construction vers cette enclave russe, puisque les chemins de fer passent par la Lituanie, donc l’UE. Au 1er juillet, l’interdiction sera étendue au ciment et à l’alcool, puis au pétrole.
Pour la Lituanie, il s’agit d’une simple application des sanctions européennes. La Russie y voit plutôt un « acte hostile », auquel elle apportera dans les prochains jours une « réponse pas exclusivement diplomatique mais de nature pratique », selon la porte-parole du ministère des Affaires étrangères. Dénonçant un « blocus », le gouverneur de Kaliningrad, Anton Alikhanov a estimé que 40 à 50 % des approvisionnements de l’enclave via la Lituanie pourraient être affectés.
« Cette décision est vraiment inédite. C’est une violation de tout. Nous comprenons que c’est lié à la décision de l’UE d’étendre les sanctions au transit. Nous considérons cela comme illégal » a réagi le porte-parole du Kremlin, Dmitri Peskov. Il existe en effet un accord conclu il y a vingt ans entre la Russie et l’UE : ce transit était l’une des conditions imposées à la Lituanie lors de son adhésion.
Une enclave ultra-militarisée
Le chef de la diplomatie européenne, Josep Borrell, a tenté de calmer le jeu en soulignant que le transit par voie terrestre n’a pas été stoppé, et que la circulation des autres marchandises et passagers n’était pas affectée. Mais Moscou ne décolère pas. Le deuxième homme le plus puissant du pays, Nikolaï Patrouchev, qui murmure à l’oreille de Poutine, s’est rendu sur place. L’ambassadeur de l’UE à Moscou a été convoqué et un député de la Douma a proposé de remettre en cause l’indépendance de la Lituanie.
« Excusez-moi l’expression, mais c’est chaud ! lâche Caroline Grimaud-Potter, géopolitologue spécialiste de la Russie. La Lituanie a pris une décision grave, dangereuse, en se cachant derrière les sanctions et l’Europe ne peut plus revenir en arrière, elle se contredirait. »
En se mêlant des affaires de Kaliningrad, Vilnius touche une corde sensible. L’enclave d’un million d’habitants représente un bastion militaire stratégique pour le Kremlin : sa flotte militaire de la mer Baltique y est implantée, car c’est l’un des rares ports libres de glace de Russie. Des missiles antibalistiques Iskander, capables de transporter des ogives nucléaires, y sont déployés.
Le corridor de Suwalki, talon d’Achille de l’Otan
Fallait-il automatiquement appliquer les sanctions à l’enclave de Klaningrad ? En mai, le vice-ministre lituanien des affaires étrangères, Mantas Adomenas, déclarait pourtant au Monde que ce transit était « protégé par les traités internationaux, et exclu de toutes sanctions ».
« L’aspect purement technocratique l’a emporté, mais l’impact géostratégique sur les Russes n’a pas suffisamment été pris en compte, déplore le politologue Patrick Martin-Genier, spécialiste des questions européennes. Cette mesure peu utile pourrait provoquer un incident très rapidement. »
Dans un premier temps, « on peut imaginer des représailles économiques, avec un blocage des importations lituaniennes », suppose Caroline Grimaud-Potter. La Russie pourrait aussi s’emparer du corridor de Suwalki, le talon d’Achille de l’Otan. Cette petite bande frontalière de 65 km de long entre la Pologne et la Lituanie relie Kaliningrad à la Biélorussie pro-Poutine, et donc à la Russie.
« Si la Russie le bloque, elle isolerait les pays baltes de l’Otan, car ce corridor représente leur seule liaison terrestre », poursuit-elle. L’ouverture d’une tension sur ce front est particulièrement « risquée », souligne Patrick Martin-Genier, au moment où l’Otan renforce sa présence dans la Pologne voisine. « On n’a pas besoin d’en rajouter. »
Le Kremlin n’a pas digéré la décision prise par la Lituanie, samedi 18 juin, de bloquer le transit par chemin de fer d’une partie des produits envoyés par Moscou à Kaliningrad. Séparée du reste de la Russie par la Lettonie, la Lituanie et la Biélorussie, cette enclave est approvisionnée essentiellement par une voie de chemin de fer qui passe par Minsk (Biélorussie) et Vilnius (Lituanie).
Numéro 2 du régime
Gabrielius Landsbergis, le ministre lituanien des Affaires étrangères, a eu beau rappeler que son pays “ne faisait qu’appliquer les sanctions européennes contre l’exportation de certains produits russe”, rien n’y a fait. Moscou a d’abord menacé Vilnius de “représailles” – sans préciser lesquelles – si cette interdiction n’était pas “immédiatement levée”. Le Kremlin a ensuite convoqué l’ambassadeur de l’Union européenne en Russie pour se plaindre officiellement.
Le déplacement de Nikolaï Patrouchev à Kaliningrad est le dernier acte de cette escalade des tensions russo-européennes initiée par Moscou. Et ce n’est pas le plus anodin. “C’est presque comme si Moscou envoyait Vladimir Poutine en personne sur place”, résume Jeff Hawn, spécialiste des questions de sécurité russe et consultant extérieur pour le New Lines Institute, un centre américain de recherche en géopolitique.
Nikolaï Patrouchev est non seulement considéré comme un proche parmi les proches de Vladimir Poutine, il lui avait aussi succédé à la tête du FSB, le puissant service de renseignement, en 2000 et jusqu’en 2008. C’est donc un homme en qui le président russe a confiance.
À tel point que c’est aussi lui qui devrait temporairement remplacer Vladimir Poutine si ce dernier avait des soucis de santé l’empêchant d’exercer ses fonctions. “Dans les faits, il est le numéro 2 du régime”, écrit Filip Kovačević, spécialiste des questions de politique russe, sur le site New Lines Magazine.
Ainsi, ce déplacement est “un exemple de démonstration de force politique comme Moscou aime à les organiser pour montrer au monde qu’elle prend une situation très au sérieux”, souligne Jeff Hawn.
Mais pourquoi ? L’Union européenne impose ses sanctions depuis des mois à la Russie à cause de son invasion de l’Ukraine, tandis que la plupart des pays membres de l’UE apportent un soutien logistique et militaire à Kiev. Et Moscou n’avait, pour l’instant, jamais réagi de manière aussi véhémente, multipliant les menaces et faisant intervenir le dauphin de Vladimir Poutine.
Symbole de l’impuissance russe
Surtout, cet embargo imposé par la Lituanie n’est que partiel et affecte seulement des matériaux comme l’acier ou le charbon. Moscou peut continuer à approvisionner Kaliningrad en denrées alimentaires et autres biens de consommation courante. “Ce n’est clairement pas le Blocus de Berlin [épisode de la Guerre froide durant lequel l’URSS avait bloqué tout accès à Berlin pendant un an, NDLR] ! D’autant moins que la Russie peut toujours faire parvenir toutes les marchandises par la mer”, précise Jeff Hawn.
Cette sanction peut, en fait, être tout simplement la goutte qui fait déborder le vase. L’embargo partiel ne servirait alors que de prétexte à Moscou pour se plaindre de l’ensemble de l’œuvre européenne depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine. Dans ce scénario, “si le Kremlin hausse le ton, c’est dans l’espoir de pousser l’UE à faire des concessions par ailleurs pour essayer de faire retomber les tensions”, note Jeff Hawn.
Mais il a du mal à croire à cette explication parce que Kaliningrad est trop importante aux yeux de Vladimir Poutine pour ne servir que de prétexte. “C’est une ville cruciale sur le plan géopolitique pour Moscou, car elle représente une présence russe en plein cœur de l’Europe”, confirme Oscar Jonsson, expert des questions militaires russes à la Swedish Defence University.
Cette position stratégique s’accompagne aussi d’une “fragilité géographique, puisque Kaliningrad est coincée entre deux pays adhérents de l’Otan (Pologne au Sud et Lituanie à l’Est)”, ajoute Oscar Jonsson. Et l’embargo imposé vient rappeler cette réalité géographique.
Un rappel d’autant plus douloureux que Kaliningrad héberge une partie de l’arsenal des missiles nucléaires tactiques russes. Moscou est donc très chatouilleux dès qu’il s’agit de l’accès à cette enclave. Les autorités russes cherchent à ce point à contrôler tout ce qui entre et sort de Kaliningrad, qu’il faut un visa spécial pour s’y rendre.
Toute cette agitation diplomatique de Moscou vise aussi à dissimuler sous un flot de menaces “l’impuissance de la Russie dans cette situation”, affirme Jeff Hawn. La Russie n’a aucun moyen concret pour forcer la Lituanie à faire machine arrière et “le fait qu’un petit pays comme ça puisse imposer des sanctions à la Russie est du plus mauvais effet pour Vladimir Poutine, qui veut à tout prix imposer l’image d’un pays fort que tout le monde respecte sur la scène internationale”, ajoute cet expert.
Vilnius ne pouvait pas ignorer le dommage réputationnel que son embargo allait causer à la Russie. “La Lituanie a agi en accord avec les sanctions européennes, mais en faisant cela, elle prend un risque”, reconnaît Oscar Jonsson. Ce n’est pas une sanction que Moscou oubliera de sitôt. Il y a fort à parier que la Russie voudra rendre la monnaie de sa pièce à Vilnius un jour ou l’autre, d’une manière ou d’une autre. Une épée de Damoclès sous laquelle la Lituanie va devoir vivre. Et c’est Vladimir Poutine qui la tient entre les mains – ce qui n’est pas des plus rassurants.
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