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La tension monte entre la République démocratique du Congo et le Rwanda, accusé de soutenir le groupe armé rebelle du M23 dans le Nord-Kivu, malgré les dénégations de Kigali. Mais sans informations indépendantes, “la situation est dans un flou constant dans le triangle République démocratique du Congo-Ouganda-Rwanda”, estime le professeur Filip Reyntjens, qui décrypte pour France 24 les raisons historiques et économiques de cette instabilité dans la région des Grands Lacs.
Entre la République démocratique du Congo et le Rwanda, les tentatives de dialogue restent vaines depuis que le M23, un groupe armé issu d’une ancienne rébellion tutsie congolaise et accusant le gouvernement de marginaliser leur minorité ethnique, a repris les armes fin 2021, faisant fi des accords de paix signés en 2013. Mi-juin, les rebelles du M23 se sont emparés de la ville de Bunagana, dans le Nord-Kivu, un important carrefour commercial entre la République démocratique du Congo et l’Ouganda. Le Rwanda a été instantanément pointé du doigt, accusé par Kinshasa d’appuyer le M23 et d’“envahir” son territoire.
Jeudi 30 juin, jour du 62e anniversaire de l’indépendance de son pays, le président congolais Félix Tshisekedi a déploré “l’énième agression de la part du Rwanda” et affirmé sa détermination à opposer un “double front diplomatique et militaire” aux violences dans l’Est.
Toutefois, les relations entre le Rwanda et la République démocratique du Congo (anciennement Zaïre) sont conflictuelles depuis la période post-génocide de 1994 et, en dépit de périodes d’accalmie, la déstabilisation de la région des Grands Lacs demeure totale depuis près de trente ans.
Après la fin de la deuxième guerre du Congo, en 2003, malgré le retrait de ses troupes, le Rwanda a poursuivi sa présence de manière clandestine en soutenant des groupes armés (dont le M23) dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo. Et ce jusqu’à la défaite du M23 en 2013 face à la Monusco, la mission de maintien de la paix de l’ONU – cédant également face à une forte pression internationale. Une présence qui s’est toujours accompagnée, notamment, de l’exploitation illégale des ressources naturelles congolaises.
Depuis l’arrivée au pouvoir du président congolais Felix Tshisekedi en 2019, les relations avec le Rwanda semblaient pourtant s’améliorer. En témoigne la signature, en 2021, d‘accords bilatéraux sur les investissements, la fiscalité ou encore l’exploitation de l’or.
Le retour au combat du M23 tombe donc à “un moment qui ne pouvait pas être plus mauvais que celui-là”, estime Filip Reyntjens, professeur de droit et de politique à l’université d’Anvers, spécialiste de la région des Grands Lacs, qui revient pour France 24 sur les raisons du regain de tensions entre Kinshasa et Kigali.
France 24 : Pourquoi ce regain de tensions entre la République démocratique du Congo et le Rwanda ?
Filip Reyntjens : Le Rwanda post-génocide a envahi le Zaïre (devenu depuis République démocratique du Congo) et le Congo (Brazzaville) à deux reprises, en 1996 et 1998. Cette deuxième guerre a pris officiellement fin en 2003 mais depuis lors, l’armée rwandaise a été présente sur le territoire congolais par mouvements rebelles interposés (le CNDP, puis le M23 depuis 2012).
La méfiance de la part des Congolais à l’est est donc compréhensible, sachant qu’il ne s’agit pas seulement d’opérations militaires, mais également d’exploitation économique et d’influence politique.
Le retour du M23 date de la fin novembre 2021, et se situe dans un contexte complexe, notamment l’implication – avec l’autorisation du gouvernement de Kinshasa (voire à sa demande) – de l’armée ougandaise en Ituri et au Nord-Kivu.
Le déploiement des Forces de défense du peuple ougandais (UPDF) a irrité le Rwanda, qui considère le Nord-Kivu comme une partie de sa zone d’influence naturelle.
Aujourd’hui, le soutien politique et diplomatique du régime rwandais au M23 ne fait aucun doute, mais est-ce qu’il l’appuie également militairement ? Cela n’est pas établi, il n’y a pas encore de preuve confirmée par des sources indépendantes. Ce serait d’ailleurs étonnant, au moment où les rapports entre les deux pays commençaient à s’améliorer : la République démocratique du Congo vient d’intégrer la Communauté d’Afrique de l’Est, juste avant l’organisation du sommet du Commonwealth à Kigali.
De son côté, l’Ouganda, où certains dirigeants du M23 se sont réfugiés après leur défaite en 2013 [face à la Monusco, NDLR], n’a pas été pointé du doigt parce que la République démocratique du Congo mène par ailleurs des opérations militaires conjointes avec l’armée ougandaise.
Le M23 est-il vraiment la pierre angulaire de ce conflit ? N’y a-t-il pas un impératif pour Kigali de maintenir sa présence dans l’est de la République démocratique du Congo pour l’exploitation des ressources naturelles ?
C’est même l’enjeu principal pour le Rwanda. D’ailleurs, le rapport du groupe d’experts de l’ONU évoque l’implication du Rwanda (mais aussi de l’Ouganda) dans l’exploitation des ressources congolaises.
Ces trois dernières années, de très nombreux rapports ont montré la fuite constante et considérable de ressources congolaises [principalement l’or, le coltan, mais aussi les diamants du Kasaï, NDLR] vers le Rwanda, puis du Rwanda vers les marchés internationaux, en particulier Dubaï.
Quoi qu’il en soit, la situation est dans un flou constant dans le triangle République démocratique du Congo-Ouganda-Rwanda, qui ne sera levé qu’au moment où nous aurons des informations vérifiées, indépendantes et externes.
Qui peut fournir ces informations et agir dans le sens d’une résolution du conflit ?
Le groupe d’experts de l’ONU, dans un premier temps. Par ailleurs, au sein de la Conférence internationale sur la région des Grands Lacs (CIRGL), le Mécanisme conjoint de vérification élargi est chargé de la surveillance de la situation sécuritaire et humanitaire dans les 12 pays de la région. Pourtant, je n’ai pas vu, depuis novembre 2021, de prise de position ou de rapport émaner de cet organe de la CIRGL.
Il ne reste donc plus que le groupe d’experts de l’ONU, et les ONG, notamment en ce qui concerne l’exploitation des ressources naturelles congolaises par le Rwanda, sujet qui fait régulièrement l’objet de rapports.
La Communauté d’Afrique de l’Est, quant à elle, ne peut pas grand-chose. Sur les sept États qui la composent (Burundi, Kenya, Ouganda, Rwanda, Soudan du Sud, Tanzanie et République démocratique du Congo), trois sont impliqués dans ce conflit, le Burundi est engagé dans le Sud-Kivu, où évoluent aussi des rebelles burundais, et le Soudan du Sud a déjà beaucoup à faire sur son sol. La seule chose que la Communauté d’Afrique de l’Est puisse faire est donc de déployer une force kényano-tanzanienne, les deux seuls États ayant l’avantage d’être indépendants et d’avoir la capacité militaire d’intervenir.
La Tanzanie l’a d’ailleurs fait au sein de la Brigade d’intervention de l’ONU, en renfort de la Monusco en 2013 pour combattre le M23, aux côtés de l’Afrique du Sud et du Malawi.
Est-ce qu’un conflit armé est possible ?
Je ne pense pas, car la République démocratique du Congo n’a pas d’armée [opérationnelle, NDLR] et ne parvient déjà pas à contrôler son propre territoire. Elle ne peut pas mener une guerre offensive contre le Rwanda, qui a une bonne armée, une armée réelle comme l’État rwandais est un État réel. L’armée congolaise, elle, est le miroir de l’État congolais – un État déliquescent qui ne remplit pas, empiriquement, la plupart des fonctions qu’un État doit remplir, comme le contrôle territorial.
Bien sûr, il y a de la part de certains politiciens (comme Martin Fayulu) et de la société civile de l’est de la République démocratique du Congo une volonté d’attaquer le Rwanda, mais ils ne le feront pas parce qu’ils ne sont pas capables de le faire. Alors que le Rwanda, lui, le peut, et l’a d’ailleurs déjà fait par le passé en envahissant le Congo et en occupant la moitié de son territoire.
Reste que la déstabilisation de la région entière reste totale, comme c’est le cas depuis le génocide au Rwanda, en 1994.
Avant, le Rwanda n’était pas un facteur d’instabilité dans la région, il n’avait jamais attaqué ou déstabilisé un pays voisin, n’avait jamais été engagé dans l’exploitation illégale de ressources… Ce n’est que depuis que le Front patriotique rwandais (FPR) est là que c’est devenu une pratique, le FPR ayant renoué avec une ancienne tradition précoloniale rwandaise d’expansion territoriale et de force militaire.
France24
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hej co slychac
Cześć wołają na mnie Edwin. konsolidacja chwilówek bez zdolności- nie musisz mieć majątku. W tym momencie moim miejscem bytowania jest arcypiękne miasto Złocieniec. konsolidacja chwilowek gdzie w Polsce- wzór przykładowego podania do wypełnienia.
Hejka moja godność to Ferdek. konsolidacja chwilówek dla zadłużonych to temat w którym czuję się najkorzystniej. Na czas dzisiejszy moim miejscem egzystencji jest rewelacyjne miasto Kostrzyn n Odrą. konsolidacja chwilówek dla zadłużonych online w Polsce to łatwy sposób na bankowe tarapaty.
Yo noszę genialne imię Borys. konsolidacja chwilówek online to najfajniejsze rozstrzygnięcie dla użytkowników zadłużonych. Aktualnie moim miejscem przebywania jest zadbane miasto Lublin. konsolidacja chwilówek bez zdolności w Polsce a prowadzenie osobistej aktywności gospodarczej.
Witajcie moi rodzice dali mi na chrzcie imię Walerian. konsolidacja chwilówek gdzie- zadaj mi zapytanie, odpowiem w mgnieniu oka. W tej chwili moim miejscem bytowania jest artystyczne miasto Wejherowo. konsolidacja chwilówekkonsolidacja chwilówek w Polsce a prowadzenie spółek prawa komercyjnego.
Cze według dowodu osobistego moje imię to Aleksander. konsolidacja chwilowek dla zadluzonych to temat w którym czuję się najkorzystniej. Na czas dzisiejszy moim miejscem zamieszkiwania jest atrakcyjne dla studentów miasto Pruszków. konsolidacja chwilówek przez internet w Polsce- opisanie statystyczne rodzimych pożyczkobiorców.
Witam według dowodu osobistego moje imię to Maciek. konsolidacja chwilowek online- z mną masz pewność właściwego podania. W chwili obecnej moim miejscem bytowania jest atrakcyjne miasto Łowicz. konsolidacja chwilówek bez dochodu w Polsce- coraz to więcej wyroków na korzyść przekredytowanych.
Elo moja godność to Jakub. konsolidacja chwilowek bez bik- tak pisz do mnie we wiadomości. W tej chwili moim miejscem bytowania jest stare miasto Reda. konsolidacja chwilówek online bez bik w Polsce- wzór wniosku o upadłość.
Sie macie według dowodu osobistego moje imię to Witold. konsolidacja chwilówekkonsolidacja chwilówek- pomogę Ci ukończyć całą procedurę. Aktualnie moim miejscem zamieszkiwania jest nowatorskie miasto Kołobrzeg. konsolidacja chwilówek przez internet w Polsce- ile pieniędzy syndyk będzie mi pobierał.
Piątka noszę imię Adam. Razem ze mną uzyskaj konsolidacja chwilowek online i pozbądź się komornika. Aktualnie moim miejscem przebywania jest niemałe miasto Ruda Śląska. Upadłość konsumencka w Polsce- jak wiele długu zostanie zapomniane.
Dzień dobry moja godność to Kazek. konsolidacja chwilówek online- nie musisz posiadać majątku. W tym momencie moim miejscem zamieszkiwania jest atrakcyjne dla studentów miasto Lubartów. konsolidacja chwilówekkonsolidacja chwilówek w Polsce- przekonaj sie czy Ty również będziesz mógł sfinalizować.
Dzieńdoberek nadano mi imię Paweł. konsolidacja chwilowek ze mną zdobędziesz nawet posiadając słabą historię w Biurze Informacji Kredytowej. W chwili obecnej moim miejscem egzystencji jest wielowyznaniowe miasto Iława. konsolidacja chwilówek w Polsce- w jakich okolicznościach i na których warunkach jest realna.
Hello wołają na mnie Antek.kredyty i pożyczki wszystko co rozumieć powinieneń.Aktualnie moim miejscem bytowania jestawangardowe miasto Szamotuły. Adwokat Rzeszów w Polsce- instytucje finansowe i inne kompanie liczą indywidualne straty.
Halo nazywają mnie Przemysław.Adwokat Rzeszówzdobędziesz nawet posiadając komornika na wynagrodzeniu.W tym momencie moim miejscem zamieszkania jestinnowacyjne miasto Strzelin. Adwokat Rzeszów w Polsce to ratunek dla nazbyt zadłużonych.
Siemaszka podobnie jak znany elektryk nazywam się Ireneusz.Adwokat Rzeszów odmieni Twoje życie.W tej chwili moim miejscem zamieszkiwania jestsupernowoczesne miasto Cieszyn. Adwokat Rzeszów w Polsce to okazja dla setek przekredytowanych rodzin.
Yo jestem znany pod imieniem Godzisław. Kredyty uzyskasz nawet mając komornika na wypłacie. Obecnie moim miejscem zamieszkiwania jest wielokulturowe miasto Krotoszyn. Kredyty w Polsce – które sprawy trafiają do krajowych sądów.