Guerre Ukraine – Russie : l’offensive de Kharkiv en cartes,l’Ukraine a repris jusqu’a 3000 Km carrés de la superficie

Ange Eric Hatangimana

Rémy RUGIRA

L’armée ukrainienne affirme que ses forces ont repris 3 000 kilomètres carrés, soit le triple de la superficie précédente, au cours d’une contre-offensive rapide dans le nord, l’est et le sud de l’Ukraine.

Bien que la BBC ne puisse pas vérifier de manière indépendante les chiffres ukrainiens (les journalistes n’ayant pas accès aux lignes de front), le ministère russe de la Défense a confirmé le retrait de ses forces de trois villes clés.

Si cela est confirmé, le rythme de la contre-attaque semble avoir pris les Russes au dépourvu.

Voici ce que nous en savons.

Contre-offensive ukrainienne au nord et à l’est

Contre-offensive de l'Ukraine

Jeudi soir (8 septembre), le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky, a estimé que 1 000 kilomètres carrés de la superficie des terres ont été récupérés dans le cadre de la contre-offensive du pays, comme le montre la carte ci-dessus.

Dans la soirée du samedi 10 septembre, ce chiffre était passé à 2 000 kilomètres carrés, le président affirmant que plus de 30 colonies avaient été “libérées” dans la région de Kharkiv.

Le principal responsable de l’occupation russe dans la région de Kharkiv a reconnu que les forces ukrainiennes avaient remporté une “victoire importante”.

Dimanche (11 septembre), selon l’agence de presse Reuters, le commandant en chef ukrainien, le général Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, a déclaré sur Telegram que les forces armées de son pays avaient repris le contrôle de plus de 3 000 kilomètres carrés depuis le début du mois.

Cette avancée remarquable, si elle est confirmée, signifie que les forces de Kiev ont triplé leurs gains déclarés en un peu plus de quarante-huit heures.

La contre-offensive à l’est a permis aux troupes ukrainiennes de pénétrer dans les villes d’approvisionnement vitales d’Izyum et de Kupiansk, tenues par les Russes.

Si elles sont tenues, il s’agirait du changement de ligne de front le plus important depuis que la Russie s’est retirée des zones autour de Kiev en avril.

Que dit la Russie ?

Graphique

Le ministère russe de la Défense a confirmé le retrait de ses forces d’Izyum (une localité visible sur la carte ci-dessus) et de Kupiansk, ce qui, selon lui, permettra à ses forces de “se regrouper” dans le territoire tenu par les séparatistes que soutient Moscou.

Elle a également confirmé le retrait des troupes d’une troisième ville clé, Balaklyia, afin de “renforcer les efforts” sur le front de Donetsk.

Kupiansk était le principal centre d’approvisionnement de la Russie à l’est et la perte d’Izyum – que Moscou a passé plus d’un mois à essayer de prendre au début de la guerre – serait considérée comme une humiliation majeure pour le président Vladimir Poutine.

Le chef de l’administration installée par la Russie dans la région de Kharkiv a recommandé à ses habitants d’évacuer vers la Russie “pour sauver des vies”.

Cependant, le rapport quotidien du ministère russe de la Défense du dimanche 11 septembre, selon BBC Russia (le service en langue russe de la BBC), ne dit rien sur le retrait des troupes dans la région de Kharkiv.

Les responsables britanniques de la défense préviennent que les combats se poursuivent en dehors de ces villes.

Gains ukrainiens dans le sud

Graphique invasion Sud

L’attention internationale s’est concentrée sur une avancée ukrainienne anticipée, près de la ville de Kherson, dans le sud du pays, comme on peut le voir ci-dessus.

Il s’agit de la première ville d’Ukraine à avoir été prise par les forces russes après l’invasion, mais l’Ukraine a récemment tenté de reprendre son territoire à l’aide de nouvelles pièces d’artillerie à longue portée.

C’est une ville d’importance stratégique si la Russie veut attaquer le port ukrainien d’Odessa, et Kherson est également cruciale en tant que principal fournisseur d’eau pour la Crimée sous contrôle russe.

Les analystes pensent que la Russie a redirigé certaines de ses troupes les plus aguerries pour défendre la ville.

Nataliya Gumenyuk, porte-parole du commandement sud de l’armée ukrainienne, a déclaré qu’ils avaient avancé “de deux à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres” sur ce front.

Mais les forces russes combattant sur le front sud se seraient retranchées dans des positions défensives, et les troupes ukrainiennes ont fait face à une forte résistance depuis le début de l’offensive.

Quelle est la situation actuelle ?

Zônes sous contrôle russe en Ukraine

Le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky, a salué l’avancée de l’Ukraine dans la province de Kharkiv (nord-est) comme une percée potentielle dans cette guerre qui a duré six mois. Il a déclaré que cet hiver pourrait apporter des gains de territoire plus rapides si Kiev peut obtenir des armes plus puissantes.

Ces avancées seront également considérées comme un signe que l’armée ukrainienne a la capacité de reprendre les territoires occupés, ce qui est crucial à l’heure où Kiev continue de demander un soutien militaire à ses alliés occidentaux, qui sont sous pression.

Toutefois, dans une interview accordée au Financial Times, le ministre ukrainien de la Défense, Oleksii Reznikov, a mis en garde contre le risque d’une contre-attaque russe.

“Une contre-offensive libère un territoire et après cela, vous devez le contrôler et être prêt à le défendre. Bien sûr, nous devons être inquiets, cette guerre nous inquiète depuis des années”, a déclaré M. Reznikov.

Les forces russes détiennent également toujours environ un cinquième de l’Ukraine – donc peu imaginent que cette percée potentielle du côté ukrainien apportera une fin rapide à la guerre.

BBC Afrique

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