Le Mali, la Guinée et le Tchad sont aujourd’hui dirigés par des gouvernements de transition. Ceux-ci ont professé leur volonté d’organiser des élections présidentielles dans les meilleurs délais pour un retour des civils au pouvoir. Mais dans les trois cas, le respect des calendriers initiaux semble poser problème du fait d’une multitude de raisons.
Le dernier coup d’État au Mali a été perpétré par les forces armées en août 2020 après une vague de contestations populaires. Neuf mois plus tard, en mai 2021 un second coup d’État est commis par la même junte avec à sa tête le colonel Assimi Goïta qui fera arrêter le président de transition Bah N’Daw et son premier ministre Moctar Ouane.
Au Tchad, le décès du président Idriss Déby Itno en Avril 2021 a propulsé son fils Mahamat à la tête du conseil militaire qui dirige aujourd’hui le pays, et en Guinée, le dernier coup de force de l’armée en septembre 2021 a abouti à l’arrestation du président Alpha Condé. Le pays est aujourd’hui dirigé par le colonel Mamady Doumbouya.
La dernière alternance démocratique en Guinée date de l’élection en 2010 de l’ancien président Alpha Condé à la tête du pays, après un coup d’état perpétré par le capitaine Moussa Dadis Camara. Au Mali Ibrahim Boubabcar Keïta est le dernier président démocratiquement élu, en 2013, lors de l’élection présidentielle qui fait suite au putsch mené par le capitaine Amadou Haya Sanogo en 2012.
Depuis François Tombalbaye, premier président de la République du Tchad renversé par un coup d’État en 1975, le pays n’a jamais connu de passation démocratique du pouvoir entre deux chefs d’État élus.
Une transition de six mois ou cinq ans au Mali ?
Lorsque les militaires ont évincé le président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta en août 2020, la junte avait adopté une charte qui stipulait que la transition durerait dix-huit mois, lesquels devraient être suivis d’élections. Cela aurait conduit à des scrutins au début de l’année 2022.
Ce calendrier a sans doute été modifié, mais dans quelle mesure ?
Les Assises nationales de refondation organisées du 11 au 30 décembre dernier ont recommandé une transition d’une durée de 6 mois à cinq ans.
Dans un communiqué publié dimanche 02 janvier, le Cadre d’échange des partis et regroupements politiques pour une transition réussie rejette déjà ce calendrier jugé déraisonnable. Une transition d’une durée de six mois à cinq ans “viole la Charte de la transition” ajoute-t-il.
Cette plateforme avait auparavant refusé de prendre part aux Assises nationales de refondation.
L’enseignant-chercheur Etienne Fakaba Sissoko, dénonce une absence d’inclusivité des Assises nationales de refondation en ce sens que l’événement a été boycotté par les plus grands partis politiques du Mali.
“Et les résolutions qui en sont sorties ressemblent très curieusement à celle des assises que nous avons connues par le passé, à savoir la conférence d’entente nationale, le dialogue national inclusif. C’étaient les mêmes solutions qui avaient été proposées, simplement la particularité qui en ressort, c’est le contexte actuel. Celui des élections et de la prolongation de la transition …et sur cette question, il s’agit d’une décision n’ayant pas fait l’objet de discussion” souligne le chercheur.
Un sommet extraordinaire de la CEDEAO sur le Mali est prévu le 9 janvier à Accra.
Les autorités maliennes ont notifié à la Cédéao qu’elles sont dans l’incapacité d’organiser des élections présidentielle et législatives en février 2022, comme la junte s’y était préalablement engagée.
Le gouvernement malien invoque l’insécurité persistante dans le pays dont une grande partie du territoire échappe au contrôle des autorités.
Le 12 décembre, l’organisation sous régionale avait exigé des élections en février 2022 au Mali et menacé d’imposer des sanctions supplémentaires dès janvier en cas de non-respect de ce délai par la junte.
Les sanctions feraient-elles la différence ? Peut-être, nous dit le journaliste et chercheur malien Alexis Kalembry.
“La junte bénéficie encore du soutien populaire mais elle pourrait être vite rattrapée par la réalité en ce sens qu’il n’y a pas de perspectives d’emploi. La situation économique ne se présente pas très bien parce qu’il y a peu d’investissement, la dernière saison des pluies n’a pas été des meilleures, il n’y a pas eu beaucoup de récolte et la faim sévit dans certaines régions du pays “note-t-il.
Au Mali plus d’une centaine de personnalités de la transition ont été sanctionnées par l’organisation sous régionale qui a gelé leurs avoirs et leur a imposé une interdiction de voyager au sein de la Cédéao. Lesdites sanctions sont étendues aux membres de leur famille.
La CEDEAO n’a pas précisé la teneur des sanctions supplémentaires dont elle a brandi la menace, mais en 2020 après le premier coup de force des hommes du colonel Assimi Goita, l’organisation avait imposé un embargo qui incluait la fermeture des frontières terrestres et aériennes de ses pays membres, et l’interruption des transactions financières ainsi que des échanges commerciaux avec Bamako, à l’exception des denrées de première nécessité.
La CEDEAO, la France, l’Union Européenne et les États-Unis avaient menacé d’imposer des sanctions après ce que Paris avait appelé un coup d’État dans un coup d’État.
Washington a mis sa menace à exécution en suspendant son assistance militaire au Mali et déclarait envisager “également des mesures ciblées à l’encontre des dirigeants politiques et militaires qui font obstacle à la transition du Mali vers une gouvernance démocratique sous l’impulsion des civils” selon un communiqué en mai dernier du département d’État.
Des élections générales en 2022 au Tchad ?
Le Tchad devrait lancer un “dialogue national inclusif” à partir du 15 février. Cette rencontre est censée réconcilier les Tchadiens et conduire à des élections présidentielle et législatives, selon Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno.
Il a également annoncé lors de son discours à la nation du nouvel an l’adoption prochaine d’une nouvelle Constitution par voie référendaire et “des élections générales, transparentes, libres, crédibles et démocratiques” à l’issue du dialogue, et a déjà rencontré les membres du comité d’organisation pour faire le point sur les avancées et les difficultés relativement à l’organisation de ce dialogue.
Mais l’opposition et la société civile estiment que les conditions ne sont pas réunies en l’état actuel de la transition pour la tenue de ce dialogue, d’ici le 15 février.
Le porte-parole de la coordination des actions de la société civile Wakit Tama, opposée à la transition militaire en cours, soutient que “Le Conseil militaire de transition (CNT) continue dans sa logique de prendre les gens de court et de mettre la charrue avant les bœufs, ça n’augure rien de bon”.
Me Max Loalngar ajoute que “Wakit Tama a produit des documents dans lesquels figurent des conditions préalables à un dialogue sincère mais on ne nous a pas écoutés. C’est une offense à l’intelligence des Tchadiens. Le CNT veut tout nous imposer avec le soutien fort de la France mais nous disons que ça ne marchera pas”.Le Coordonnateur du Mouvement citoyen pour la préservation des libertés (MCPL) note pour sa part qu'”on veut aller vite au besoin pour faire capoter les choses. “
“Ces préalables doivent être aplanis pour aller à un dialogue vrai. Pendant longtemps les Tchadiens sont assis sur des ressentiments, il y a la haine, la rancœur, il n’y a pas de justice, il n’y a pas un Etat de droit. Donc ce dialogue doit permettre de poser les préalables pour une refondation du Tchad. C’est cela l’important” poursuit-t-il.
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, est à la tête d’un Conseil militaire de transition (CNT) depuis la mort de son père Idriss Déby Itno, tué en avril dernier au combat contre des rebelles.
L’analyste politique Sedik Abba ne voit pas de raison objective qui pourrait amener à douter de la possibilité pour le Tchad d’organiser les élections en 2022.
“Tous les organes de transition sont déjà en place. Mais tout dépendra aussi de la pression que la communauté internationale mettra pour obtenir le délai. Dans le cas du Tchad, je pense que le pouvoir est sensible à ce que pensent ses partenaires : la France, l’Union africaine et les autres partenaires. A mon avis, avec un minimum de pression, le Tchad pourrait aller aux élections en 2022”, affirme l’analyste à BBC Afrique. La transition doit durer 18 mois renouvelable une fois.
L’union africaine a décidé de ne pas sanctionner le Tchad en mai 2021 mais a exigé une transition démocratique de 18 mois menant à des élections libres, justes et crédibles.
Le casse-tête de la composition du conseil national de la transition en Guinée
En Guinée le CNT, le Conseil national de la transition, censé tenir lieu d’assemblée nationale est l’organe qui doit mettre en place un calendrier électoral en vue des prochaines élections.
Mais à ce jour, cet organe n’est pas créé. Les autorités au pouvoir en Guinée ont demandé aux principales composantes de la société et aux principaux partis politiques de fournir une liste de 81 membres qui le composeront.
Les autorités de la transition ont publié un communiqué dans lequel elles affirment avoir reçu 706 candidatures, envoyées notamment par les partis politiques, les organisations de la société civile, les chefs religieux, les associations de jeunes, pour siéger au CNT.
Pour sa part, la CEDEAO réclame un calendrier pour le retour des civils au pouvoir, et elle appelle la Guinée à respecter un délai de six mois pour la tenue des élections.
La CEDEAO a suspendu la Guinée de ses instances et sanctionné individuellement les membres de la junte dirigée par le colonel Mamady Doumbouya le président de la transition.
Le politologue Mohamed Camara pense que la classe politique guinéenne tente d’éviter les erreurs des transitions précédentes en succombant à l’urgence.
“Les acteurs politiques présentement s’arment de patience parce que la charte de la transition exclut toute candidature venant des autorités de la transition, et ces mêmes acteurs vont être représentés au sein du CNT donc ils savent que tout se passera au vu et au su de tout le monde au sein de cet organe-là “explique-t-il.
Il rappelle que la constitution guinéenne a été suspendue, la CENI dissoute, et que le fichier électoral doit être revu entièrement selon la junte. L’analyste en conclut qu’il est peu probable que des élections se tiennent cette année en Guinée.
Mais les sanctions internationales, notamment la suspension de la Guinée de L’AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act, Loi sur la croissance et les opportunités de développement en Afrique en français) par Washington semble miner la patience de la classe politique.
Plus d’une centaine de formations politiques viennent de former une nouvelle coalition nommée le Collectif des Partis Politiques de Guinée, le CPPG.
Le principal leader de l’opposition guinéenne, Cellou Dalein Diallo, annonce que cette plateforme va adresser une demande commune de retour à un régime civil à la junte militaire et qu’il est urgent que la Guinée travaille à rétablir ses relations avec ses partenaires internationaux.
Ce collectif vise à créer un cadre de dialogue avec les autorités de transition au pouvoir depuis la chute d’Alpha Condé. Il va aussi travailler à définir une position commune sur la constitution, le code électoral, l’organe de gestion des élections, le chronogramme, la durée de la transition et le fichier électoral.
En mars 2020 déjà -avant la réélection d’Alpha Condé pour troisième mandat – des experts de la CEDEAO pointaient des irrégularités dans le fichier électoral guinéen et invitaient les autorités de l’époque à soustraire des millions de noms des listes.
source:BBC
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