While the majority of European countries, notably the United Kingdom, rely on exit polls to declare election winners, in France, pollsters base their estimates on ballots actually counted. Explanations.
Sunday April 24, as is customary, the face of the winner of the presidential election – Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen – will appear live on television at 8 p.m. sharp.
However, in the big cities, the polling stations will have just closed their doors.
So how do the pollsters manage to give a winner at 8 p.m., when all the votes have not yet been counted?
Unlike the operation of most other European countries, the results communicated at 8 p.m. are not exit polls.
French pollsters base their estimates on the first ballots that have indeed been counted.
To do this, everything is played during the hour preceding the announcement of the result.
In mainland France, polling stations close at 7 p.m. in most municipalities and at 8 p.m. in major cities, particularly Paris and Marseille.
It is thanks to this one-hour delay – which was two hours in previous elections – that the pollsters can designate a winner.
“They use interviews, we use ballots”
“The main difference with an exit poll is that instead of asking people outside the polling station how they voted, we look directly at their ballot papers,” says Mathieu Doiret of the polling institute Ipsos, partner of France 24 for the presidential election.
“This forces us to wait for the first polls to close at 7 p.m., while exit polls can be worked on throughout the day.”
Ipsos, like other polling institutes, sends pollsters, around 500, to various polling stations, chosen so that they are representative of the country’s diversity.
According to Mathieu Doiret, the idea is not so much to find areas where voting habits reflect the rest of the country, but rather to have polling stations that can reveal trends.
This may consist, for example, of seeing whether, in the strongholds of a candidate, there are large numbers of people moving or not.
Once there, the investigators call the polling institute every hundred ballots counted to communicate the results.
A software takes care of centralizing all the data, and, by comparing them with the figures of the previous elections, develops projections.
At the start of election night, the polling institutes can thus give initial estimates which will be updated over the hours, as the counting of the ballots progresses.
“British pollsters, for example, also choose a representative sample of polling stations and compare the results with past elections in order to establish their projections”, compares Mathieu Doiret, whose institute also carries out surveys in the United Kingdom.
“The only difference is in the primary material: they use interviews, we use ballots.”
For the specialist, relying on the actual count of the votes rather than on exit polls has certain advantages.
In the British case, voters are, for example, free not to want to tell the pollsters which ballot they put in the ballot box.
A risk of error?
So far, this system has proven itself.
In each election, the pollsters were able to give a result at 8 p.m., including the first round of the presidential election in 2002, despite the tiny difference which had allowed the far-right leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, to ahead of the socialist Lionel Jospin.
“We have not yet seen polling institutes unable to declare a winner, or the finalists of the second round, at 8 p.m.”, assures Mathieu Doiret.
“There was only one time there was some confusion, in 1974.”
That year, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing won with only 400,000 votes ahead of his opponent, the narrowest gap ever recorded.
“But with today’s expertise and technical capabilities, we wouldn’t even have had such difficulties,” says the specialist.
However, a surprise cannot be completely ruled out.
This is what some voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon hoped for in the first round on April 10.
At 8 p.m., the rebellious candidate was credited with 20%.
He finally finished, according to the official count of the Ministry of the Interior with 21.95% of the total votes cast.
“Things get complicated when the candidates do much better in a ballot than in previous elections in a certain type of constituency,” explains Mathieu Doiret.
“In the case of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, his support in rural areas was largely unchanged from 2017, but he jumped in some urban areas, where polling stations closed later. So we couldn’t tell. until after 8 p.m. when these offices began reporting their results.”
The temptation to trust foreign media
If the media will wait for the closing of the polls to communicate the first estimates on Sunday, on social networks, anonymous but also Belgian or Swiss media will publish estimates through the hashtag #RadioLondres from the end of the afternoon, based on exit polls, precisely, or on old polls.
While it may be tempting to refer to them, these results are often unreliable.
Proof of this is two weeks ago, during the first round of voting, when rumors spoke of a tie between Macron and Le Pen – it turned out later that the incumbent president had a four-point lead.
And these results are also contrary to French law.
From Friday at 11:59 p.m. until Sunday at 8 p.m., France is in a period of “electoral silence”.
The French media are therefore prohibited from quoting candidates or publishing opinion polls so as not to influence voters.
These rules also apply to candidates and their teams, who do not have the right to campaign within 44 hours before the end of the poll.
In a press release published on April 4, the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign for the Presidential Election, the CNCCEP and the Polling Commission thus recalled that the publication of results or polls or their dissemination, including on social networks, is liable to a fine of up to 75,000 euros.
This article was translated from English by Cyrielle Cabot.
source:France24
Do you have a spam problem on this blog; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have created some nice procedures and we are looking to swap methods with others, please shoot me an email if interested.
Hi my family member! I wish to say that this article is amazing, nice written and include approximately all significant infos. I would like to see extra posts like this .
Just wanna input that you have a very nice website , I like the design it actually stands out.
Hey there are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you need any coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!
Some genuinely good info , Sword lily I found this. “The problem with any unwritten law is that you don’t know where to go to erase it.” by Glaser and Way.
Greetings from Colorado! I’m bored to tears at work so I decided to browse your site on my iphone during lunch break. I really like the information you present here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m amazed at how quick your blog loaded on my phone .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, superb blog!
I like this post, enjoyed this one appreciate it for putting up.
My programmer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on numerous websites for about a year and am anxious about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any help would be really appreciated!
Hey there, You’ve done a great job. I’ll definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I’m sure they’ll be benefited from this web site.
I would like to get across my love for your kindness supporting all those that actually need help on your area of interest. Your very own dedication to passing the solution up and down appears to be extremely good and has in every case empowered girls much like me to get to their desired goals. This interesting suggestions means so much to me and even further to my office workers. Best wishes; from each one of us.
Woh I love your content, saved to my bookmarks! .
you have an amazing blog here! would you like to make some invite posts on my weblog?
You made some clear points there. I looked on the internet for the issue and found most persons will agree with your site.
F*ckin’ amazing things here. I am very glad to see your article. Thanks a lot and i’m looking forward to contact you. Will you kindly drop me a mail?
You can definitely see your expertise within the work you write. The world hopes for more passionate writers such as you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. Always go after your heart. “In America, through pressure of conformity, there is freedom of choice, but nothing to choose from.” by Peter Ustinov.
fantastic post.Never knew this, appreciate it for letting me know.
you are really a good webmaster. The web site loading speed is amazing. It seems that you’re doing any unique trick. In addition, The contents are masterpiece. you have done a excellent job on this topic!
I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. thanks
Wow! Thank you! I continuously needed to write on my website something like that. Can I take a portion of your post to my site?
There is visibly a bundle to identify about this. I think you made some nice points in features also.
I admire your piece of work, appreciate it for all the great blog posts.
I see something really special in this site.
Very interesting subject, regards for putting up. “To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it.” by G. K. Chesterton.
Glad to be one of several visitants on this awful website : D.
I’ve been browsing on-line more than three hours these days, yet I by no means discovered any interesting article like yours. It’s lovely value sufficient for me. In my opinion, if all website owners and bloggers made just right content material as you probably did, the web will be a lot more useful than ever before.
Very good written post. It will be useful to everyone who utilizes it, as well as myself. Keep doing what you are doing – i will definitely read more posts.
There may be noticeably a bundle to find out about this. I assume you made certain good factors in features also.
Great post, you have pointed out some wonderful points, I besides think this s a very excellent website.
This is a very good tips especially to those new to blogosphere, brief and accurate information… Thanks for sharing this one. A must read article.
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thanks again
of course like your website however you need to test the spelling on quite a few of your posts. A number of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very troublesome to tell the truth nevertheless I will certainly come again again.
Great write-up, I¦m regular visitor of one¦s blog, maintain up the nice operate, and It is going to be a regular visitor for a lengthy time.
Heya this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding expertise so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!
water fountain
Just a smiling visitor here to share the love (:, btw outstanding pattern.
آیا شرکت ایمن زاهدان خدمات حفاظتی با کیفیت و ارزان را ارائه میدهد؟ بله. ایمن زاهدان با تیم حرفهای و تجربهی خود در زمینهی خدمات حفاظتی و امنیتی، از بهترین تجهیزات و قطعات با کیفیت برای ارائه خدمات استفاده میکند. این شرکت همواره سعی میکند با بهترین خدمات و قیمت مناسب به نیازهای مشتریان پاسخ دهد و رضایت کامل آنها را فراهم کند. سایت رسمی ایمن زاهدان: https://imenzahedan.ir/
Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to far added agreeable from you! By the way, how could we communicate?
ahanhefaz company is one of the top manufacturers and providers of building security and beauty products in Iran. Using the best primary parts and modern technology, this company produces a variety of products, including building guardrails, window guards, accordion doors, villa iron doors and wrought iron patio doors, double-glazed windows and installation services for security products such as electric shutters, parking jacks. offers burglar alarms and automatic glass doors to its customers. Also, due to the effort for the best services, this company offers facilities such as free consultation, cost estimation, installation, repair and after-sales service to its customers. Delivery and installation of goods on time and customer satisfaction are other features of ahanhefaz company. website link: https://ahanhefaz.com/
ahanhefaz In Farsi, it is آهن حفاظ is a manufacturer of all kinds of apartment door guards, including standard accordion doors with excellent quality and reasonable prices, all kinds of sliding doors, rail doors, cheap accordion guards, classic accordion doors, simple iron doors, anti-theft guards for apartment doors. Apartment door protectors are designed and manufactured with the best type of iron material, including 3 fabric hinges for anti-damage and 8-mil lock and furnace color. Metal accordion door purchase website : https://ahanhefaz.com/
Like any other electrical device, the electric shutter is made of professional components and parts based on modern science; The technology of this tool is such that it meets the needs of people in modern society with all the hustle and bustle and insecurity in it; One of the clear examples of this in the design and construction of shutters is compliance with the requirements and standards of buildings and houses that are built according to modern global architecture. Ordinary shutters were used for shops since ancient times. Today, with the advancement of science and technology, all kinds of shutters have entered the market that work with a motor and can be opened and closed easily using a remote control. ahanhefaz In Farsi, it is آهن حفاظ is a website : https://ahanhefaz.com/
ahansaze company is in Persian language آهن سازه , It is proudly committed to providing installation and manufacturing services of all kinds of quality iron products. This company, with expertise in building wall protection fence, deer antler protection, accordion door, window protection, iron and laser model building entrance door, wrought iron villa door, staircase and balcony railing made of metal and CNC, provides a decent service to its customers. Offers. Also, the installation services of electric shutters, parking jacks, automatic glass doors, electric awnings and parking barriers are also considered as part of Ahansaze services. By offering sales services of pipe, scaffolding and mansman, concrete jack and formwork, and double-glazed windows, ahansaze company ensures that various construction needs are met with the best parts and materials and with high precision. Company website: https://ahansaze.com/
Real excellent information can be found on site. “That is true wisdom, to know how to alter one’s mind when occasion demands it.” by Terence.
Some really good posts on this internet site, regards for contribution.
Lottery Defeater Software? Lottery Defeater is a software application created to help people win lotteries
This design is wicked! You certainly know how to keep a reader amused. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Great job. I really loved what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!
HerpaGreens is a novel dietary supplement created to help destroy the herpes simplex virus
FitSpresso is a weight loss supplement developed using clinically proven ingredients extracted from natural sources.
Hey there, You’ve done a fantastic job. I’ll definitely digg it and individually suggest to my friends. I’m confident they will be benefited from this site.
Great write-up, I?¦m regular visitor of one?¦s site, maintain up the nice operate, and It is going to be a regular visitor for a lengthy time.
I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great. I do not know who you are but certainly you’re going to a famous blogger if you are not already 😉 Cheers!
Really enjoyed this blog post, how can I make is so that I get an alert email when you make a fresh article?
I like the helpful information you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and check again here regularly. I’m quite sure I will learn many new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!
Very interesting info !Perfect just what I was searching for! “To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle.” by Lisa Alther.
Admiring the hard work you put into your blog and in depth information you present. It’s nice to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same outdated rehashed information. Great read! I’ve bookmarked your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google account.
I am not sure the place you are getting your info, however great topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more. Thanks for excellent info I used to be on the lookout for this information for my mission.
I’ve been exploring for a little for any high quality articles or blog posts on this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this website. Studying this info So i’m happy to exhibit that I have an incredibly good uncanny feeling I discovered just what I needed. I such a lot for sure will make sure to don’t put out of your mind this web site and provides it a glance regularly.
I like this post, enjoyed this one appreciate it for posting.
Hello there! Would you mind if I share your blog with my myspace group? There’s a lot of folks that I think would really appreciate your content. Please let me know. Many thanks
What Is ZenCortex? ZenCortex is an ear health booster that protects ears from potential damage and improves your hearing health.
Hey There. I discovered your blog using msn. This is a really neatly written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and return to learn more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I will certainly return.
Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back frequently!
Sweet site, super design and style, very clean and employ friendly.
Hi, Neat post. There’s a problem with your web site in web explorer, could check this?K IE nonetheless is the market leader and a good component of folks will pass over your magnificent writing because of this problem.
I am thankful that I found this site, precisely the right info that I was searching for! .
I’ve been browsing on-line more than three hours these days, yet I never discovered any interesting article like yours. It?¦s lovely worth enough for me. Personally, if all site owners and bloggers made excellent content as you probably did, the web will be much more useful than ever before.
Hi my loved one! I want to say that this article is amazing, great written and include approximately all significant infos. I’d like to look more posts like this .
very nice post, i definitely love this website, keep on it
The other day, while I was at work, my cousin stole my iPad and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!
I really appreciate this post. I have been looking all over for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You’ve made my day! Thank you again
Hi, Neat post. There’s an issue with your web site in web explorer, could test this?K IE still is the market leader and a large element of other folks will miss your magnificent writing because of this problem.
Outstanding post, you have pointed out some good points, I besides believe this s a very good website.
My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on various websites for about a year and am anxious about switching to another platform. I have heard very good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress posts into it? Any help would be really appreciated!
I really like examining and I believe this website got some truly utilitarian stuff on it! .
But wanna say that this is extremely helpful, Thanks for taking your time to write this.
Hi there! This post could not be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my good old room mate! He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this page to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Many thanks for sharing!
You made various good points there. I did a search on the topic and found a good number of folks will consent with your blog.
I feel this is among the most important information for me. And i am satisfied reading your article. However want to remark on few normal things, The site style is ideal, the articles is truly excellent : D. Just right activity, cheers
I got what you intend, thankyou for posting.Woh I am glad to find this website through google.
Hello, Neat post. There is an issue with your website in internet explorer, might test thisK IE nonetheless is the market chief and a huge section of people will miss your great writing because of this problem.
What Is FitSpresso? The effective weight management formula FitSpresso is designed to inherently support weight loss. It is made using a synergistic blend of ingredients chosen especially for their metabolism-boosting and fat-burning features.
Understanding NanoDefense Pro: What is it? NanoDefense Pro is a specialized formula designed to improve nail and foot health naturally.
What is Lottery Defeater Software? Lottery Defeater Software is a plug-and-play Lottery Winning Software that is fully automated. Kenneth created the Lottery Defeater software. Every time someone plays the lottery, it increases their odds of winning by around 98.
There is noticeably a bunch to identify about this. I feel you made some nice points in features also.
Hey very nice web site!! Man .. Excellent .. Amazing .. I’ll bookmark your blog and take the feeds also…I am happy to find numerous useful info here in the post, we need develop more strategies in this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .
I¦ve read several excellent stuff here. Certainly price bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how much effort you set to create this type of great informative site.
Good ?V I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs and related information ended up being truly easy to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or something, website theme . a tones way for your client to communicate. Nice task..
What¦s Taking place i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It absolutely helpful and it has helped me out loads. I am hoping to contribute & assist different customers like its helped me. Good job.
I discovered your blog site on google and check a few of your early posts. Continue to keep up the very good operate. I just additional up your RSS feed to my MSN News Reader. Seeking forward to reading more from you later on!…
Hey! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good results. If you know of any please share. Many thanks!
Its superb as your other posts : D, regards for putting up. “For peace of mind, we need to resign as general manager of the universe.” by Larry Eisenberg.
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article. I’ll be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I’ll certainly comeback.
Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with some pics to drive the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is excellent blog. An excellent read. I’ll certainly be back.
I am impressed with this site, very I am a fan.
Wow, this post has given me useful info and answered some of my questions. I hope to give something back and aid others like you helped me. Feel free to surf my website UY9 about Airport Transfer.
Good info. Lucky me I reach on your website by accident, I bookmarked it.
Very wonderful info can be found on web blog.
Hello.This article was extremely remarkable, particularly since I was investigating for thoughts on this issue last couple of days.
Sight Care reviews
Fit spresso reviews
Cellucare reviews
Lottery defeater reviews
Sight Care reviews
Fitspresso review
Sight Care reviews
Lottery defeater software review
Cellucare reviews
Cellucare review
Does your website have a contact page? I’m having a tough time locating it but, I’d like to send you an e-mail. I’ve got some recommendations for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing it grow over time.
What’s Going down i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve discovered It positively useful and it has aided me out loads. I’m hoping to give a contribution & aid different users like its aided me. Great job.
Sumatra Slim Belly
Lottery defeater review
Fitspresso reviews
You made various nice points there. I did a search on the issue and found mainly persons will agree with your blog.
Lottery defeater reviews
Lottery defeater review
Opini pix
Opini pix funciona
Ikaria Lean Belly Juice reviews
Fitspresso
Fitspresso
Fitspresso reviews
Fitspresso reviews
Dentavim reviews
Fitspresso review
Fitspresso
Fitspresso review
Its like you learn my thoughts! You seem to understand so much approximately this, like you wrote the ebook in it or something. I believe that you just could do with some percent to pressure the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is magnificent blog. A fantastic read. I’ll certainly be back.
Fitspresso review
Fitspresso reviews
Fitspresso
Fitspresso reviews
Juice to loss weight
Terrific work! That is the kind of info that are meant to be shared around the web. Disgrace on Google for no longer positioning this submit higher! Come on over and consult with my website . Thank you =)
Zencortex reviews
Lottery defeater
Neotonics reviews
Sightcare
Dentavim review
Dentavim is a dietary supplement formulated to support oral health and improve dental hygiene. With increasing awareness of the importance of maintaining good oral health, Dentavim has emerged as a popular choice for individuals seeking to enhance their dental care regimen. This article provides a detailed overview of Dentavim, including its ingredients, benefits, potential side effects, and overall effectiveness.
Nearly all of what you state is astonishingly accurate and that makes me wonder why I hadn’t looked at this in this light previously. This particular piece really did turn the light on for me as far as this particular topic goes. But at this time there is actually one particular factor I am not really too comfy with so whilst I make an effort to reconcile that with the main theme of the issue, permit me see exactly what the rest of your subscribers have to point out.Well done.
Lottery defeater software reviews
Sight care review
Unlock the potential of your pineal gland with the potent Pineal XT Dietary supplements serve as a gateway to expanding one’s range of expression, and Pineal gland support supplements, in particular, can elevate mental and spiritual capabilities. Pineal XT vitamins offer a pathway to endless joy, prosperity, health, and love. These supplements are designed to bolster the pineal gland’s function, enhance overall body performance, and boost energy levels. It stands as a premier alternative for reducing the impact of fluoride, pollutants, and the natural aging process.
Neotonics gummies review
Fitspresso review
Fitspresso is a brand-new natural weight loss aid designed to work on the root cause of excess and unexplained weight gain. The supplement uses an advanced blend of vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants to support healthy weight loss by targeting the fat cells’ circadian rhythm
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is magnificent blog. An excellent read. I will certainly be back.
Kerassentials reviews
Explore vast worlds, build your empire, and conquer enemies Hawkplay
Build your strategy, execute your plan, and dominate Hawkplay
Puravive
There are some fascinating cut-off dates on this article but I don’t know if I see all of them middle to heart. There is some validity however I will take hold opinion till I look into it further. Good article , thanks and we wish extra! Added to FeedBurner as effectively
TONIC GREENS
LEANBIOME
SUGAR DEFENDER REVIEWS