La médiation de la France dans le conflit de l’Est de la RDC. Pour sauver la face du Rwanda et de l’Ouganda?

Ange Eric Hatangimana

AFRIQUE LA PREMIERE

La recette miracle d’Emmanuel Macron pour mettre sous le boisseau la situation à l’Est de la RDC née de la résurgence du M23 sans qu’aucun des protagonistes (RDC, Ouganda, Rwanda) n’apparaisse comme ayant perdu la face.

Le lundi 20 septembre 2022, jour d’ouverture de l’Assemblée Générale des Nations Unies à son siège à New York, Radio France Internationale (un média d’état français) a diffusé une émission dont un passage a interpelé les spécialistes de la région des Grands Lacs surtout qu’il venait corroborer ce qu’ils apprenaient par d’autres sources.

Voici ce passage:

RFI. REVUE DE PRESSE AFRIQUE, au Micro de Frédéric Couteau le : 20/09/2022 – 09:08

RDC-Rwanda : les services secrets français à la manœuvre ?

“…Et puis toujours à propos de la RDC, cette information donnée par Jeune Afrique [NDLR : un média très proche du régime Kagame et donc très informé et de source autorisée sur lui]: la France, par l’intermédiaire de ses services secrets, serait en train de mener « une médiation dans la crise entre la RDC, le Rwanda et l’Ouganda. (…) Des responsables des services de renseignement congolais, rwandais et ougandais se sont rendus ces derniers jours à Paris au siège de la Direction générale de la sécurité extérieure[ DGSE], (les services secrets français). (…) Cette discrète médiation intervient, précise Jeune Afrique, alors que le déploiement d’une force régionale conjointe de la Communauté des États d’Afrique de l’Est se fait toujours attendre. Des contingents burundais ont pris position au Sud-Kivu mi-août et, selon une source impliquée dans le projet, des premiers éléments de l’armée kényane doivent être prochainement déployés à Goma, où sera installé le quartier général de la force. (…). »

Dans cet article, nous allons faire partager aux lecteurs les constatations, les interrogations et les issues possibles qu’entraînerait cette initiative de la France d’Emmanuel Macron.

Commençons par les interrogations que soulève cette initiative aux mains des Services Secrets des trois pays.

Qui sera le dindon de la farce ? Qui en seront les victimes directes ou collatérales? Comment essayer d’éviter cette nouvelle “Nakba” des peuples bantous de la région? Les propositions des réponses à ces interrogations seront fournies tout au long du développement de cette analyse.

La constante.

La nouvelle initiative du président français ne va modifier en rien, pas même d’un iota, la constante géopolitique du moment en ce qui concerne la région. Cette constante se résume en ceci : le détachement de l’Est (Nord et Sud Kivu) de la RDC ou, à défaut, en faire une zone de non-droit et ouverte et pas sous l’autorité de Kinshasa.

Ainsi pour l’Ouganda il constituerait un grenier ou une caisse économique dans lesquels il irait puiser comme il veut, tandis que pour le Rwanda de Paul Kagame, il constituerait une bouée d’oxygène tant démographique pour un petit pays surpeuplé mais aussi et surtout politique. En effet le territoire constituerait un banc d’essai pour la pérennisation des régimes minoritaires et non démocratiques dans la région et dans toute l’Afrique.

Nouvelle donne depuis mi-2022

Cette nouvelle donne est la réapparition du M23, une rébellion des tutsi congolais qui avait disparu des radars il y a une dizaine d’années. Il est réapparu tellement armé et équipé que même le Secrétaire Général de l’ONU reconnaît que son arsenal est plus sophistiqué et performant que tout armement dont peut disposer la force des Nations Unies en RDC, la MONUSCO.

Le jeu de chaque joueur acteur ou protagoniste dans ce championnat ou théâtre du nom de M23

La RDC.

– Pour une fois, dénonciation claire de l’agression du Rwanda par le M23 interposé.

– Résiliation des contrats commerciaux qui la liaient au Rwanda

– Se jeter dans les bras de la East African Community dont elle est membre depuis peu pour l’aider à combattre le M23 (donc Kagame).

L’Ouganda

Jouer un double-jeu pour berner la RDC en lui disant qu’il participe à sa sécurisation mais en même temps en promouvant politiquement et logistiquement le M23.

Le Rwanda de Kagame

Nier toute évidence, comme toujours, en comptant sur son impunité assurée et le contrôle des médias influents par ses sponsors

Enjeux chez chacun des acteurs ou protagonistes

La RDC

C’est Félix Tshisekedi lui-même, et au passage son régime, qui sont en jeu. A l’approche des élections, le dossier de l’Est de la RDC risque de lui coûter le deuxième mandat qu’il souhaiterait de tous ses vœux. Bien plus grave, il passerait dans l’Histoire comme ayant été le plus grands traître à la Nation pour avoir cédé une portion du territoire national pendant son mandat et donc signé la fameuse “Balkanisation du Congo”.

L’Ouganda

L’Ouganda risque, dans ce jeu de dupes, que les fameux contrats économiques juteux signés avec la RDC soient résiliés par la partie congolaise. Ce qui constituerait non seulement un séisme économique mais aussi un désaveu mal venu après presque quatre décennies au pouvoir pendant lesquels il se targue d’avoir relevé ce pays par son intelligence.

Le Rwanda de Kagame

– Le M23 est son ultime carte dans sa prétention au droit de faire ce qu’il veut dans la région et ainsi détourner l’attention sur la souffrance de la majorité de la population suite à l’Apartheid qu’elle subit, depuis 1994 de la part d’une clique venue d’Ouganda et du Burundi principalement (Abavantara). C’est donc une question vitale pour un régime tutsi comme celui du FPR de Kagame car si jamais il est soumis à un exercice démocratique, il est sûr que ce serait se faire ”hara-kiri”.

– Kagame et son régime ont peur que le régime démocratique instauré au Burundi dans les années 2005 après des décennies d’une dictature hima-tutsi, ne contamine les habitants rwandais devenus sans broncher des serfs des seigneurs venus justement pour certains du Burundi et n’exigent eux aussi la démocratie. Kagame doit donc maintenir, et s’il le faut comme présentement, provoquer cette insécurité pour tout présenter comme une lutte contre “un génocide“ latent, car ceci constitue une assurance longue vie d’un régime minoritaire et donc forcément dictatorial.

Cartes rabattues par Macron (jusqu’ici par ces Services Secrets) devant les protagonistes.

Devant Felix Tshisekedi

– Ne plus insister pour accuser ouvertement le Rwanda de Kagame de l’avoir agressé,

– Ne plus brandir que le M23 est un groupe terroriste . Mais plutôt lui aménager une porte de sortie en intégrant certains cadres politiques et militaires dans l’administration et les FARDC mais sans trop de bruits.

– En contrepartie, la France s’engage à le soutenir dans sa prochaine campagne pour un second mandat. Ainsi, les services de Macron s’engageraient à contrer et annihiler les rapports de certaines ONG qui le critiquent notamment sur la lutte contre la corruption, alors qu’un de ses proches défraie la chronique, alors qu’il avait fait de la lutte anti corruption son cheval de bataille dans sa campagne de 2018.

– De même les services français s’engageraient à contrer les activités de ses opposants vivant en Occident en général et en France en particulier.

A Yoweri Museveni il est demande:

– De cesser le réapprovisionnement du M23 en matériels de guerre et en logistique de toute sorte et de ne pas conquérir d’autres positions en RDC.

– A lui l’astucieux Museveni de trouver une formule pour que le M23 abandonne Bunagana sans apparaître avoir été défait par les FARDC.

– En contre-partie, Macron s’engage à ce que tous les contrats signés avec la RDC resteront valables. Que le méga-projet du géant français TotalEneries continuera et que les ONG qui dénoncent ses effets pervers envers la population et l’environnement seront, soit mises au pas ou bâillonnées. Enfin Macron lui donne la largesse de continuer à occuper et à exploiter les provinces d’Ituri et du Nord Kivu sous prétexte des fantomatiques ADF omniprésentes mais invisibles et insaisissables.

A Paul Kagame.

Il ne lui est demandé qu’une seule chose: exiger au M23 de cesser les hostilités. Autrement dit que Kagame donne ordre aux unités de son armée présentées comme étant M23 de regagner leurs casernes et de quitter les positions de combat en RDC dont Bunagana.

En contre-partie les services de Macron lui déroulent un chapelet d’offres:

– Macron doit lui assurer que la France va redoubler d’intensité dans la chasse à ses opposants exilés en les accusant d’être des “génocidaires” et pour ceux vivant en France, en donnant injonctions au Procureur auprès du pôle “génocide” créé à Paris de procéder à leur arrestation en utilisant à fond les groupuscules comme Ibuka-France ou CPCR d’un certain Alain Gauthier. Les moyens matériels, financiers et humains seront accrus pour que tous les hutus ou les recherchés par Kigali soient déférés devant les Cours d’Assises, prioritairement à toute autre affaire en France.

– Il lui garantit qu’il pourra toujours aller tuer ou enlever n’importe quel réfugié hutu en RDC et que dans ce cas les services français plaideront devant la Communauté internationale qu’il s’agissait de “génocidaires” du groupe FDLR, comme vient de l’insinuer Antonio Guterres, Secrétaire Général de l’ONU.

– Enfin, Macron va assurer à Kagame que ce dernier peut toujours tenter d’installer au Burundi un régime tutsi au modèle rwandais et que la France fermerait les yeux et démentirait ceux qui le dénonceraient, mais au contraire que la France pourrait lui fournir des appuis en renseignements ou en communication pour cette entreprise.

Qui est ou sera le dindon de la farce?

Dans ce jeu de dupes, à première, vue c’est l’actuel président de la RDC qui risque d’apparaître comme le dindon de la farce (au conditionnel!). En effet, rien ne garantit que la majorité des Congolais apprécieront son deal avec Macron-Museveni et Kagame pour lui accorder leurs suffrages en décembre 2023. Surtout que rien ne dit que les garanties et calculs de Macron passeront comme une lettre à la poste dans l’opinion tant congolaise, africaine et française. Et le monde étant devenu un village, même les “Services Secrets“ comme la DGSA, ne peuvent pas toujours être sûrs qu’ils mènent le monde à l’aveuglette. La preuve : nous avons appris cette manœuvre à moins d’un mois de la rencontre des Double Zéro Sept (007) des quatre pays (les chefs espions de la France, la RDC, l’Ouganda et le Rwanda) à Paris.

Un autre dindon de la farce et pas des moindres, risque d’être le peuple de l’Ouganda qui constatera que leur président à vie est un perfide qui n’hésite pas à leur dire qu’il n’est pas en RDC alors qu’il y est et ne soutient pas le M23, alors qu’il considère Bunagana à sa frontière comme une capitale d’un “Etat dans l’Etat” qu’est la RDC avec tout ce qui va avec : documents signés par le M23, contrôles et perceptions douanières par le M23 agrées par la partie ougandaise.

Victimes directes et collatérales

Les premières victimes de ces manœuvres politiques sont naturellement les populations de l’Est de la RDC. Depuis 1996 en effet, elles n’ont cessé d’être victimes des calculs politiciens et des décisions politiques qui, tous, concourraient à leurs massacres ou à l’exil pour les chanceux.

Les autres victimes vont être, comme toujours les” hutu” ou les opposants au régime du parti-état FPR de Paul Kagame, qui vont servir de monnaie d’échange contre le M23 par l’entremise de la France alors qu’ils n’ont rien avoir dans cette embrouillamini, ayant trop souffert pour faire attention aux discussions de salon de leurs bourreaux que sont Museveni, Kagame et actuellement Macron.

En conclusion

La question qui se pose, maintenant que les cartes sont sur la table, est de savoir ce que peuvent faire les futures victimes directes ou collatérales de cette manœuvre de la France dans la région des Grands Lacs. N’ayant pas nous-même de réponse à proposer, nous la soumettons aux lecteurs en espérant que nous aurons des Feedback. Nous attendons surtout ceux provenant des politiciens parmi ces potentielles victimes dans leur rôle de prévoir et de montrer la voie à suivre aux populations auxquelles ils proposent des changements pour un avenir meilleur.

AFRIQUELA1ÈRE

SOURCE: Emmanuel Neretse

© 2011 – 2020 Echos d’Afrique | www.echosdafrique.com

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