Emmanuel Macron, le bilan (1/4) : sur la scène internationale, un président médiateur impuissant

Emmanuel Macron désormais officiellement candidat à sa réélection, France 24 dresse le bilan de son quinquennat en quatre volets. Le Premier est consacré à la politique étrangère du chef de l’État ,qui a tenté, durant cinq ans, d’agir en médiateur, le plus souvent sans succès.

Jusqu’au bout de sa présidence, Emmanuel Macron aura essayé de jouer le rôle qu’il s’était auto-attribué dès 2017 : celui de médiateur en chef. Dernier exercice en date : le président de la République aura tenté, par tous les moyens diplomatiques, d’éviter que la Russie n’envahisse l’Ukraine. Il s’est rendu à Moscou, le 7 février, pour plaider la désescalade auprès de son homologue russe, Vladimir Poutine, pensant même être parvenu à ses fins en annonçant une possible rencontre entre ce dernier et le président américain, Joe Biden. Un peu plus de deux semaines plus tard, Vladimir Poutine reconnaissait les deux républiques séparatistes du Donbass, avant d’ordonner l’invasion militaire de son pays voisin.

Un échec diplomatique pour Emmanuel Macron, seulement quelques jours après une autre déconvenue à l’international : l’annonce, le 17 février, du retrait des troupes françaises du Mali, où la France était engagée depuis neuf ans dans la lutte antijihadiste menée dans l’ensemble du Sahel.

Si ces deux revers ne disent pas tout de l’action diplomatique menée par le président français depuis cinq ans, ils symbolisent toutefois l’impuissance de la France sur la scène internationale. Emmanuel Macron s’est pourtant démené. Il aura tenté de saisir chaque occasion pour donner le beau rôle à la France en misant sur son rapport personnel avec les grands de ce monde.

Il en va ainsi de sa relation avec Vladimir Poutine, reçu en grande pompe à Versailles, dès le 29 mai 2017, seulement deux semaines après l’entrée d’Emmanuel Macron à l’Élysée. Dès le début de son quinquennat, le chef de l’État s’évertue à créer un lien avec le président russe. Il le reçoit également, en août 2019, au fort de Brégançon, affirmant qu’une “Russie qui nous tournerait le dos ne serait pas dans notre intérêt”. Mais alors que le président français fait de son mieux pour séduire son homologue, Vladimir Poutine ne manque pas une occasion de tacler son hôte, lorsqu’une question lui est posée au sujet d’arrestations de manifestants à Moscou : “Nous ne voulons pas d’une situation telle que celle des Gilets jaunes à Moscou”, répond-il.

Une stratégie similaire est employée avec l’ex-président des États-Unis, Donald Trump. Lui aussi est reçu à Paris avec faste, les 13 et 14 juillet 2017 : les couples Trump et Macron dînent au restaurant de la tour Eiffel, et Donald Trump est l’invité d’honneur de la France pour le défilé du 14-Juillet. Les médias parlent alors de “bromance” et celle-ci semble opérer : Donald Trump couvre de louanges le président français et Emmanuel Macron se montre très tactile avec ce dernier, lorsque l’hôte de la Maison Blanche le reçoit en avril 2018. Mais là encore, malgré son jeu de séduction, Emmanuel Macron ne parvient pas à faire changer d’avis Donald Trump sur le retrait des États-Unis de l’accord de Paris sur le climat et celui sur le nucléaire iranien.

Emmanuel Macron a conscience du recul de la France sur la scène internationale, mais souhaite également profiter, au début de son mandat, de l’effacement du Royaume-Uni, trop occupé par le Brexit, et du repli sur lui-même de son allié américain. Le président français se voit alors en leader du multilatéralisme. C’est le temps du “Make Our Planet Great Again” de juin 2017, des beaux discours à l’assemblée générale des Nations unies, du One Planet Summit de Paris en décembre 2017 ou encore du sommet du G7 à Biarritz en août 2019.

L’Otan est en état de “mort cérébrale”

Au-delà de l’Ukraine ou de l’Iran, Emmanuel Macron joue aussi les médiateurs en Libye et au Liban. Et tant pis s’il faut pour cela remettre dans le jeu international le prince héritier saoudien, Mohammed Ben Salman, mis en cause dans la mort du journaliste Jamal Khashoggi en 2018. Il le rencontre à Djedda en décembre 2021. Un risque diplomatique assumé par Emmanuel Macron, qui affirme que “le dialogue avec l’Arabie saoudite est une nécessité”.

Ce type d’initiative est une autre marque de fabrique du président français, toujours à l’affût d’un éventuel coup à jouer à l’international ou d’une nouvelle passe d’armes avec un chef d’État illibéral. Le ton monte ainsi à l’été 2018 avec Viktor Orban, le dirigeant hongrois affirmant ne pas vouloir “d’une Union européenne sous leadership français” alors qu’Emmanuel Macron le qualifie de nationaliste. En août 2019, Jair Bolsonaro se moque du physique de Brigitte Macron après avoir été accusé par le dirigeant français d’avoir “menti” sur ses engagements environnementaux. Et à l’automne 2020, Recep Tayyip Erdogan met en cause la “santé mentale” d’Emmanuel Macron après de vifs échanges sur la laïcité et la liberté d’expression dans la foulée de l’assassinat de l’enseignant français Samuel Paty.

Mais Emmanuel Macron est aussi capable d’agacer ses propres alliés. Comme lorsqu’il affirme, dans une interview donnée à l’hebdomadaire britannique The Economist, en novembre 2019, que l’Otan est en état de “mort cérébrale”, provoquant de vives réactions dans les capitales nord-américaine et européennes.

Les rapports sont également extrêmement tendus avec Joe Biden au moment de la crise des sous-marins australiens. Alors que la France espérait un nouveau départ avec Washington après l’élection du successeur de Donald Trump, fin 2020, c’est tout le contraire. Le “contrat du siècle” entre Paris et Canberra pour la vente de douze sous-marins pour un montant de 56 milliards d’euros est rompu par les Australiens, en septembre 2021, au profit d’une nouvelle alliance avec le Royaume-Uni et les États-Unis. L’attitude des Américains est condamnée par la diplomatie française et l’ambassadeur français à Washington est rappelé. Une première dans l’histoire des relations entre ces deux alliés historiques. Il faudra une conversation téléphonique entre Emmanuel Macron et Joe Biden, puis une rencontre à Rome, fin octobre, pour enterrer la hache de guerre. Mais l’épisode des sous-marins fait tâche et est considéré par de nombreux observateurs comme une “humiliation” pour la France.

Le bilan est plus positif en Afrique, où Emmanuel Macron a d’abord hérité de la lutte contre le jihadisme au Sahel. Malgré la récente annonce du retrait des troupes françaises du Mali et du bilan mitigé de l’opération Barkhane, le président français a aussi connu des succès, parvenant notamment à impliquer d’autres pays européens au sein de la force Takuba.

Mais c’est surtout dans ses autres initiatives diplomatiques qu’Emmanuel Macron a marqué des points sur le continent africain. Il y a d’abord cette volonté de s’adresser à la jeunesse et à des pays considérés comme en-dehors de la sphère d’influence française. Emmanuel Macron se rend ainsi au Nigeria, en juillet 2018, et s’adresse à la société civile à l’intérieur du Shrine, un club mythique de Lagos.

Une ambition européenne contrariée

Le président français s’est également distingué en Afrique par sa politique mémorielle. Lors d’un discours historique à Kigali, en mai 2021, Emmanuel Macron a reconnu “les responsabilités” de la France dans le génocide des Tutsi au Rwanda, en 1994. Un discours rendu possible grâce aux conclusions du rapport de l’historien Vincent Duclert, qui a travaillé pendant deux ans, à la demande d’Emmanuel Macron, sur le rôle de la France au Rwanda.

Autre dossier mémoriel : la guerre d’Algérie. Emmanuel Macron confie en juillet 2020 à l’historien Benjamin Stora une mission sur la mémoire de la colonisation et de la guerre d’Algérie. À la suite de la remise du rapport, il facilite la déclassification des archives de la guerre d’Algérie en mars 2021 et demande “pardon” aux harkis en septembre de la même année, en reconnaissant leur “singularité dans l’histoire de France” et en annonçant un projet de loi de reconnaissance et de réparations.

Mais les plus grandes ambitions d’Emmanuel Macron en matière de politique étrangère concerne l’Europe. À son arrivée à l’Élysée, il renomme d’ailleurs le Quai d’Orsay “ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires étrangères”, affichant ainsi sa priorité pour le Vieux Continent. Le président français prononce des discours remarqués à La Sorbonne en septembre 2017 et à Aix-la-Chapelle, en Allemagne, en mai 2018, lors desquels il affirme sa volonté d’une “autonomie stratégique” pour l’Union européenne. Emmanuel Macron rêve d’une Europe avec un budget commun pour la zone euro, davantage de convergence fiscale et sociale et, surtout, d’une défense commune.

Son projet rencontre toutefois de nombreuses résistances. À Aix-la-Chapelle, il exhorte Angela Merkel de le suivre pour convaincre leurs partenaires, mais celle-ci refuse. C’est finalement la crise sanitaire du Covid-19, en 2020, qui permet à Emmanuel Macron d’obtenir des avancées, avec un plan de relance européen massif et une mutualisation des dettes.

Les derniers mois de son quinquennat devaient permettre au président français de poursuivre ses efforts, grâce à la présidence française du Conseil de l’Union européenne. Emmanuel Macron comptait en particulier avancer sur la politique de défense commune. “Nous devons passer d’une Europe de coopération à l’intérieur de nos frontières à une Europe puissante dans le monde, pleinement souveraine, libre de ses choix et maître de son destin”, déclarait-il en décembre 2021. Trois mois plus tard, la crise ukrainienne rebat les cartes. L’Allemagne vient d’annoncer vouloir augmenter ses dépenses militaires et pourrait ainsi faire avancer le projet d’Europe de la défense. Mais en même temps, l’invasion russe pourrait aussi remettre l’Otan au centre du jeu. Impossible, pour l’heure, de tirer des conclusions. Il faudra attendre les prochains mois pour savoir si cette guerre aura été un tremplin ou une contrariété de plus dans les ambitions internationales d’Emmanuel Macron.

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