IGERERANYA KU RUHANDE RUMWE KINSHASA NA M23, KU RUNDI RUHANDE ADDIS ABEBA NA TPLF: NI IRIHE SOMO PEREZIDA FELIX ANTOINE TCHILOMBO TCHISEKEDI AKWIYE KWIGIRA KURI MUGENZI WE ABIY AHMED?

Yanditswe na Valentin AKAYEZU

Abanyarwanda, mu mvugo y’igiswayire bitiza, bakunze kuvuga ngo “Jeshi ni Jeshi”. Bisobanuye ngo umusirikare aba ari umusirikare. Ibi bivuze iki? Bivuze ko hari ibihe bikomeye umuntu ageramo, ufite ubumenyi bwa gisirikare akaba yamenya uko abyikuramo bitamuhejeje hasi kurenza uko undi udafite ubwo bumenyi yabwitwaramo.

Ukurikije ijambo Museveni Kaguta yavugiye kuri stade amahoro ya Kigali mu kwezi kwa kane 2014, igihe cyo kwibuka jenoside yakorewe Abatutsi, aho amaze kunnyega no gucunaguza cyane Perezida Kayibanda, yakurikijeho guhindura urw’amenyo Perezida Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngwendu wa Zabanga abicishije mu kunnyega ayo mazina ye yose, n’uko arangiza yigamba ubutwari ko ubu Kigali na Kampala bikomeye nta wabajegajeza, bafite ibitwaro bya karahabutaka n’ibindi byinshi yarondoye.

II Indi nkuru wasoma:“KAGAME NA MUSEVENI NI NKA COCA COLA NA PEPSI COLA”. Kanda hano uyisomeII

Amagambo ya Museveni icyo gihe, ntaho atandukaniye n’ay’umuhungu we Jenerali Muhoozi Kainerugaba yadukanye muri iyi minsi avuga ko Abatutsi n’Abahima bayobowe n’umwuka umwe w’Abacwezi, ko ari ibiremwa bidahungabanywa bifite igisekuru kimwe kandi badakorwa mu jisho!!

II Indi nkuru wasoma: ESE UBWAMI BUGARI BW’ABAHIMA-ABATUTSI BWITWA EMPIRE HIMA-TUTSI BUBAHO KOKO CYANGWA NI BARINGA? kanda hano uyisome II

Impamvu yo kwibutsa ibyavuzwe n’abo bategetsi babiri bafitanye isano y’amaraso, ni ukugirango tubashe kureba amakosa yo mu rwego rwa “Stratégie diplomatique et militaire” (Ubuhanga mu bya gisirikare no mu by’ububanyi n’amahanga) yakozwe na Perezida Fatchi kuva aho afatiye Ubutegetsi.

Uyu akimara kugera ku ntebe yaranzwe n’agakungu gakomeye yari afitanye na mugenzi we Paul Kagame birirwaga bazererana isi yose. Abanyarwanda bo bari basanzwe babimenyereye ko Perezida wabo atajya yicara hamwe, ariko ku bakongomani byari bishya. Abajijwe icyo byungura igihugu mu ngendo zitarangira ahoramo, Fatchi yashubije ko ngo “amafaranga zinjiza ari menshi kurenza azitangwaho!!!”

Cyakoze ku bakurikirana politiki y’akarere, ntibashidikanya ko hari icyavuyemo n’ubwo kitarabasha kugaragara neza!! Fatchi yashoboye kwagurira amarembo ibihugu by’uburengerazuba kurenza uko byari bimeze ku butegetsi bw’uwo yasimbuye Joseph Kabila. Mu gihe Paul Kagame yamaze gutakaza ibihe bye byo kurebana akana ko mu jisho n’abakomeye bo mu burengerazuba bw’isi, bigaragara ko ubu basa n’abumva neza Fatchi kuruta uko babona uwahoze ari “guide spirituellement politique” (umutoza we umwerekera uko yitwara muri politike,umurandata we) we, ariwe Paul Kagame.

Tugarutse ku minsi ya mbere y’ubutegetsi bwa Fatchi yaranzwe n’agakungu twakomojeho, benshi mu banyarwanda n’abakongomani bahise bamuha akazina ka “Gisekeramwanzi”, bitewe n’uko mu by’ukuri yikururaga k’umuntu adasobanukiwe neza. Nyamara abasesenguzi ba politiki ya Kongo bavuga, bitandukanye n’uko benshi babibonaga, ko Perezida Fatchi afite abahanga mu by’imibanire y’ibihugu na politiki mpuzamahanga bakoze akazi keza. Bivugwa ko Perezida Fatchi yemeye kwicisha bugufi amera nk’insuzugurwa ya Kagame, uyu nawe abasha ku mugeza ku meza y’icyubahiro ya ba shebuja (high table), kuko nk’uwari usanzwe ababereye Ijisho ku bukire bwa Kongo, noneho yibwiraga ko abazaniye umu’boyi’ muto kuri we uzabasha gukorerwamo byoroshye. Fatchi, inyaryenge icecetse, yavuganye na ba ba shebuja ba shebuja we, bityo inyungu z’abakuru muri Fatchi zigenda zikura, izo bafite muwa musindagizaga, zigabanuka.

Uko iminsi yagiye ihita, Fatchi yagiye yipakururura bucece igitutu cya Kagame, ibintu bitangira kuzamba aho agiraniye amasezerano na Museveni mu bufatanye bwerekeye ubucuruzi na gisirikare. Kigali itari imeranye neza na Kampala, yabibonye nk’igihemu gikomeye cyane cyane ko ubucuruzi bwa Kigali muri Kongo no kugera ku mari iri mu butaka bwayo, byari bigiye mu kaga.

Abenshi baguye mu mutego wo gutekereza ko kurebana nabi hagati ya Kagame na Museveni byaba bisobanuye ko Museveni yaba yarahinduye imyumvire kuri politiki y’akarere. Kwabaye kwibeshya, yewe na Perezida Fatchi ntiyashoboye kubisobanukirwa kuko ntibyatinze kwigaragaza ko ya sano y’ubucwezi ihuza Museveni na Kagame ari umurunga ukomeye udapfindurwa! Ntibitangaje ko kubona imbaraga Uganda yari yashoye mu bufatanye na Congo, Museveni yemera kuzihindura ubusa. Si ibanga muri iyi ntambara yitirirwa M23, Uganda yahaye inzira igisirikare cya Kagame, kinjirira ku butaka bwayo ngo kibashe kugotera neza FRDC i Bunagana.

II Indi nkuru wasoma: JENERALI MUHOOZI KAINERUGABA NA FILOZOFIYA Y’UBUVANDIMWE BUSHINGIYE KU ISANO Y’UBWOKO NK’UBURYO BW’IMIBANIRE MU KARERE K’IBIYAGA BIGARI! Kanda hano uyisome!

Iyi ntambara yitirirwa M23 ishobora kuzagora Perezida Fatchi kubera impamvu zikurikira:

1) Bidashidikanywaho, ntabwo iyi ntambara Kagame yayubuye ku nyungu z’ibihugu byo mu burengerazuba (proxy war) nk’uko byari bimenyerewe mbere. Kagame yahengereye Igihe kiza, isi yose irangariye muri Ukraine, kuko imbaraga zose z’uburengerazuba bw’isi niho zirangamiye kandi hagenda byinshi, hakaba nta gihe cyo kwibuka ibindi bibera kw’Isi, ibihugu bikomeye bisa n’ibifite. Haba uburengerazuba bw’Isi n’Uburusiya, haba Ubushinwa busa n’ubwitegura intambara muri Taiwan, biragoye ko Kongo yabona uruhande ruyihagararaho muri ibi bihe igihe ihanganye n’ibihugu bibiri bizwiho kugira igisirikare gikomeye cyane cyane kubirebana na “discipline militaire”(nimvuga discipline, humvikane mu buryo bwagutse, kuko igisirikare cy’U Rwanda na Uganda bisanzwe bizwiho kumena amaraso menshi, ariko kubirebana n’imiyoborere/leadership, ntabwo aribyo gukekeranya, ni ibisirikare bifite uko biyobowe mu buryo bufatika);

2)N’ubwo ibihugu by’uburengerazuba bisa n’ibidateje Fatchi ikibazo, ariko kubera impamvu yavuzwe hejuru, hakiyongeraho andi masezerano Kagame agenda agirana nabyo, ibyo ni imbogamizi ikomeye kuri byo kuba byakwerura ngo birwanye ibitero Kagame arimo kugaba kuri Kongo. Kw’ ikubitiro, Ubwongereza bwa Boris Johnson bwibohesheje amasezerano yo kwimurira abimukira mu Rwanda. Kagame yabonye “moyen de chantage”(igikangisho) ikomeye kuri Leta ya Boris kuko byanze bikunze haba harimo n’ibindi byahishwe kuburyo Kagame aramutse abishyize ahagaragara byagira ingaruka za politiki zikomeye kuri PM Boris. Macron nawe amasezerano yo kurinda gaz ya Mozambike icukurwa na Total azatuma icyo gihugu kidashobora gukoma rutenderi kubireba Kagame cyane cyane muri ibi bihe ISI ifite ikibazo cya gaz kubera intambara ya Ukraine. Ubufaransa buzakomeza kubona muri Kagame inyungu zo kubarindira ibyabo, bwirinda icyamuhutaza.

Ni kimwe no ku muryango w’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi aho ufite muri Kagame inyungu zo kwakira abimukira bava muri Libya no kurinda inyungu zabo muri Sahel aho Ubufaransa buri kwirukanwa, Kagame akaba yitegura kohereza ingabo kubungabunga inyungu z’abanyaburayi.

Iyi “diplomacy stratégique” (aya mayeri mu bubanyi n’amahanga) ya Kigali izakomeza guteza Perezida Fatchi ibibazo kuko ku bushotoranyi ashyirwaho na Kigali, ibihugu bikomeye bizaceceka kuko Kagame yabitangatangiye aho bibabaye!!

Kugeza ubu Abanyamerika bigaragara ko ntacyo bagishaka muri Kagame, ariko nabo ntiberura ngo bakore ibikorwa bifatika byo kumucubya, ahari kuko bisa n’aho batarabona indi “alternative” (ikindi gikoresho cyasimbura icyo) ibasha ku maîtrisant (ngo babashe kwifatira) akarere. Ni nko kuvuga ngo “reka tube twitonze da, kuko ntawamenya!!!”.

II Indi nkuru wasoma: Igisirikare cy’u Rwanda cyaba kirimo guhinduka abacancuro b’u Bufaransa n’Uburayi nk’uko Wagner ikoreshwa n’Uburusiya? kanda hano uyisome! II

3) Kuva aho Laurent Désiré Kabila afatiye ubutegetsi, ndetse n’umuhungu we Joseph Kabila agasa n’ugendera muri uwo murongo, Kongo yihatiye gutsura umubano mu bya gisirikare n’ibihugu bikomeye mu biyegereye. Intambara za 2000 kugera kuya M23 yo muri 2012 zagiye ziburizwamo kubera ko Kongo yashoboye kujya itabarwa n’inshuti zayo ziyegereye.

Rimwe mu makosa akomeye Fatchi yakoze, ni ukutumva neza ko yarakwiriye kwegera inshuti zakomeje kubanira Kongo ziyiba hafi mu bihe bikomeye, ahubwo agendeye kucyo yari yarise kurangiza ikibazo cy’imitwe y’abanyamahanga yitwara gisirikare mu burasirazuba bwa Kongo, yiyegereza u Rwanda, rwakomeje kugira uruhare rutihishiriye mu guhangabanya ako gace. Ubufatanye bwa gisirikare yagiranye na Kigali bwavuzwe ko bwashegeshe imitwe ya FDRL na FLN, nyamara ntibibuza ko n’ubu Kigali ikivuga FDRL. Mu gihe Fatchi yirengagije kureba imbaraga SADC yagiye itiza igihugu cye mu ntambara zabanje, Kigali yo yamuciye inyuma ikajya yegera ibyo bihugu, kimwe kimwe ikagirana amaserano nabyo mu birebana n’iperereza.

Mu Minsi ishize hagaragaye ibiganiro hagati y’Uburundi na RDC, ndetse Fatchi yongera kugaragara Brazzaville, nubwo abyibutse atinze, ariko akwiye kwibuka ko umuturanyi wa hafi akurutira umuvandimwe uri kure.

Ese Perezida Félix Antoine akore iki?

–Intambwe yo kwishimira ubutegetsi bwa Kongo bwateye, niyo kubasha kwita ikibi ko ari kibi nta gukekeranya. Ibi byaherukaga ku butegetsi bwa Mzee Laurent Désiré Kabila ubwo mu ntambara ya 2000 yavugaga atarya iminwa ko Congo RD itarwana n’ikiyise RCD ahubwo irwana n’ingabo z’ibihugu ziri ku butaka bwa Congo zitaratumiwe(armées non-invitées). Congo yerekana ibisirikare yatumiye(Angola, Zimbabwe,..) ikavuga ko ibisirikare bya Uganda n’U Rwanda byihamagaye. Uko kwerura muri diplomasiya kwarafashije cyane. Kuba ubu Congo yita M23 umutwe w’iterabwoba, kandi ikavuga ko yatewe n’U Rwanda na Uganda, ikabikora nta kurya iminwa, birashyira pression kuri ibyo bihugu birwana no guhishira uruhare rwabyo, kandi biratuma Impamvu M23 itanga zibura agaciro(uretse ko nta n’impamvu zifatika ifite).

Perezida Fatchi ahindukize amaso arebe ibihugu byose bishobora kumutiza amaboko. Ntabwo uburengerazuba bw’isi bukiri igisubizo ku bibazo bya politike mpuzamahanga kuko nabwo buhanganye na byinshi bugomba kwikuramo.

Igihe Abatigereyani bahagurukaga muri Ethiopiya, bishingikirije ku kuboko k’Uburengerazuba. Ubwinshi bw’intwaro n’ubuzobere mu bya gisirikare, bibwiraga ko ari ikibazo cy’amasaha gusa bakigarurira ubutegetsi bwa Addis-Abeba. Nyamara ABIY Ahmedi, yiteguriye ikibuga mbere, intambara ye yarwanywe n’abanzi bakomeye b’abanyatigreya. Eritereya niyo yabaye amaboko ya ABIY. Ikindi, cyane cyane ko uburengerazuba bwari mu bamugambanira, amaso yayerekeje kuri Iran, Turkiya na Quatar. Abo bamuhaye intwaro zigezweho zahangamuye abanyatigreya (bari banashyigikiwe n’abacwezi nk’uko Muhoozi yabyivugiye).

Icyagaragaye mu ntambara ya Ethiopiya, ni uko intambara ubu zitakirwanywa cyane mu buryo bw’ihangana (guerre frontale) ahubwo intambara ni ikoranabuhanga.

Intambara ya Ukraine n’Uburusiya nayo yagaragaje ko atari ubuhangange nk’ubwo kuko iyo itaba intambara yifashishije ikoranabuhanga, Ukraine yari yagoye Abarusiya.

Abibwira ko FARDC ari igisirikare kitifashije, gifite abasirikare badahugukiwe iby’imirwanire, bakwiye kwibuka uburyo bushya bw’intambara.

Intambara ubu ni amafaranga n’ikoranabuhanga. Mu gihe Perezida Fatchi yashyira imbaraga aho ngaho, akongera politiki y’ubufatanye mu bya gisirikare isobanutse kandi ijya mu nyungu za Kongo, intambara izagora abayishoje.

ABIY ni urugero rwiza rw’imiyoberere yo mu gihe cy’intambara.