Ese wari uzi ko abahanga muri siyansi bemeje bose ko niba nta gikozwe ngo abantu n’inganda zabo bagabanyeho nibura kimwe cya kabiri cy’imyuka iva ku isi ihumanya ikirere ya ‘carbon’ bitarenze mu mwaka wa 2030 – isi yose izatokombera kubera ubushyuhe bwangiza ikirere? Ese ko igihe ntarengwa kitwegereye cyane,wowe ku giti cyawe,na za Leta,dukora iki ngo tubungabunge iyi si yacu twese dusangiye? Soma iyi nkuru wumve uruhare rwawe ubwawe mu kwita kuri iki kibazo.
Ubushyuhe bw’isi bukomejekwiyongera bikabije kubera ibikorwa by’abantu,none ubu ihindagurika ry’ikirere riri hafi kudushyira mu kaga twese abatuye isi,kandi ni mu nzego zose z’ubuzima bwacu.
Bidakurikiraniwe hafi, abantu n’isi bagiye guhura n’akaga gakomeye k’ubushyuhe , buzatuma izuba ritumanukira, inkombe z’inyanja n’ibiyaga zirengerwe zisuke mu bantu, ubwoko bwinshi bw’inyamaswa n’ibimera bicike burundu. Rwose ibihe biri imbere ntibyoroshye na gato, igisubizo cyabyo kiroroshye,ariko abantu ntibiteguye kwirinda akaga kuko abategetsi b’iyi si bamaze imyaka isaga 30 bakora inama ngo bafate ingamba,ariko rwose bagera iwabo bakarushaho kubaka inganda zisohora ibyotsi byangiza kurushaho.
Ese usobanukiwe n’iki kibazo cy’Ihindagurika ry’ikirere?
Ikirere ni uburyo iteganyagihe riba ryifashe muri rusange ku gipimo cy’igihe kirekire. Ihindagurika ry’ikirere n’ukuba hari ibyangiritse muri iryo teganyagihe muri rusange.
Ukwangirika kw’ihindagurika ry’ikirere duhanganye nabyo ubu,biterwa n’ibintu byinshi harimo ugukoresha peteroli n’ibiyikomokaho byose(lisansi,mazutu,…), umwuka (gaz),amakara n’amazuku bishyushya mu mazu cyangwa bitekeshwa (charbon canke coal), ibyuka byangiza biva mu nganda(“amahinguriro” mu kirundi)hamwe n’imyotsi iva mu modoka,gari ya moshi,indege,amato, mbese muri make mu buryo bwo gutwara abantu n’ibintu.
Mu gihe ibyo byotsi byose bihuriye muri iyi si cyangwa mu nsi yayo, birekura imyuka yonona akayunguruzo k’isi (igisenge cy’isi) – cyane cyane gaz carbonique cyangwa carbon dioxide izwi mu mpine nka CO2. Ibyo bituma ubushyuhe bw’izuba butumanukira nta nkomyi,maze isi dutuyeho twese(abantu,inyamaswa,inyanja n’ibimera) ikarushaho gushyuhirana,n’ibihe bisanzwe (saisons) bikadurumbanywa.
Ubu isi ishyuhiranye ku rugero rwa 1,2C (degré celcius) kuruta uko yari ishyushye mu kinyejana cya 19 (mu myaka ya za 1800) – none urugero rwa narwo CO2 mu kirere rwaratumbagiye kugera ku rugero rwa 50%. Ukwiyongera kw’ubushyuhe bw’isi kugomba kugabanywa cyane byihutirwa niba dushaka kwirinda ingaruka za mbere mbi cyane z’ihindagurika ry’ibihe, nk’uko bivugwa n’abahanga mu bya siyansi twavuze tugitangira. Abo bahanga bemeza ko ukwiyongera kw’ubushyuhe bw’isi kutagomba kurenga 1,5C gushika mu 2100.
Ariko,igihe gisa n’icyaducitse keretse hari igikozwe mu maguru mashya, naho ubundi isi ishobora kwongera ubushyuhe ku rugero rwa 2C gushika mu mpera z’iki kinyejana cyonyine. Niba nta gikozwe, abahanga mu bya siyansi bavuga ko ubushyuhe bw’isi bushobora kwiyongera ku rugero rwa 4C, ibyo bikaba byatugeza mu kaga katarabaho kuva isi yaremwa, abantu babarirwa muri za miriyoni nyinshi bagatakaza amazu yabo kubera imyuzure y’inyanja n’ibiyaga, izuba rikatumanukira, ibidukikije bikazimangatana burundu.
Ingaruka z’ihindagurika ry’ikirere
Muri iki gihe,twatangiye gusogongera ku ngaruka zikaze z’ihindagurika ry’ikirere, kuko twese twiboneye cyangwa twiyumviye ubushyuhe bwishi budasanzwe,imiyaga idasanzwe n’uruzuba, bisigaye biza bikaze kurusha mbere hose, bigashyira ubuzima mu kaga.
Niba bikomeje gutya, hari ibice n’ibihugu byinshi ku isi ubuzima buzaba butagishoboka,kuko imirima ihingwa izaba ubutayu burundu. Mu bindi bice by’isi ho, bazaba ibinyuranye n’ibyo kuko ho hazajya hagwa imvura y’ikirenga itera imyuzure itari yaboneka kuva ku Mwuzure wa Nowa – nk’uko mu minsi ya vuba aha byabaye mu Bushinwa, mu Budage, Mu Bubiligi, no mu Buholandi.
Abantu bo mu bihugu bisanzwe bikennye nka Afurika na Aziya bo bazakubitika kurushaho kuko n’ubusanzwe nta buryo nta bikoresho nta n’ubuhanga bwo guhangana n’ ihindagurika ry’ikirere basanzwe bifitiye. Mu bihugu bimwe bimwe bikiri mu nzira y’amajyambere, imirima yeraga kera isigaye ihura n’ubushyuhe burengeje urugero, kandi ibiri inyuma ni byo bibi kurushaho.
Inyanja n’ibiyaga byacu hamwe n’ibinyabuzima bibamo nabyo biri mu kaga.
Dufate urugero ruto: Akarere k’ibinyabuzima kazwi nka Great Barrier Reef muri Australia, kuva mu 1995, kamaze gutakaza kimwe cya kabiri cy’ibinyabuzima bihasanzwe bihazwi cyane (corals) kubera ubushyuhe bw’amazi bwiyongeye biturutse kw’ihindagurika ry’ikirere.
.
Muri ibi bihe Imiriro yarateye aho amashyamba yifata akagurumana kubera uruzuba rutwika,kandi ibyo bitera kumagara k’ubutaka n’ubushyuhe bukabije.
Nanone ibice by’isi byari bisigaye ari nk’ububiko bw’ubukonje bw’isi (amasimbi) nko muri Siberiya ubukonje burashonga imyuka yari yarakingiraniwe muri ayo masimbi ikabona aho imenera igasohoka ikisuka mu kirere nayo ikongera ihindagurika ry’ibihe.
Ikindi twavuga,muri iyi si isigaye ishyuhiranye kurusha mbere hose, inyamaswa z’amoko yose bizazigora kubona ibyo kurya n’amazi binywa kugira bibeho.
Urugero ruto,nk’amadubu (ours/bears) biba mu mpera (pole) z’isi ahakonja cyane, bizapfa bicike mu gihe amasimbi abitse amazi amadubu akenera cyane kugira ngo abeho azaba ashonga,kuko amadubu ubusanzwe akenera hagati ya litiro 150 na 300 z’amazi buri munsi kugira zibeho.Ntizizi izuba n’ubushyushye,zikundira ubukonje bwinshi cyane ari nayo mpamvu nta handi zibasha kuba.
Abahanga mu bya siyansi baburiye abategetsi b’isi ari nabo bafata imyanzuro ko nibura ubwoko 550 bw’inyamaswa bushobora kuzimangatana burundu muri iki kinyejana, kandi ibyo ni agateganyo gusa,kuko bavuga ko imibare iziyongera cyane niba nta gikozwe mu maguru mashya.
Ingaruka zizagera ku isi hose,mu buryo butandukanye
Ihindagurika ry’ibihe rigira ingaruka zitandukanye mu turere dutandukanye tw’isi. Hamwe hazaba hatwika cyane, ahandi ari imyuzure y’imvura nyinshi,amazi y’inyanja n’ibiyaga arengere ibice byinshi by’isi.
Niba ukwangirika kw’ikirere n’ibipimo by’ubushyuhe bitagumye munsi ya 1.5C:
- Ubwongereza n’Uburayi nibyo bizagira ibyago birenze by’imyuzure kubera imvura irenze n’amazi y’inyanja abazamukane.
- Ibihugu byo mu Burasirazuba bwo hagati (Aziya cyane cyane mu bihugu by’abarabu) bizahangana n’ubushyuhe bwinshi cyane,imirima yabo ihinduke ubutayu
- Ibihugu by’Ibirwa mu karere ka Pacific bishobora kumirwa kubera urugero rw’amazi aho inyanja zizabatwikira neza neza
- Ibihugu byo muri Afrika hafi ya byose byo bizahura n’akaga k’izuba ryinshi,ibiribwa bibure cyane.
- Muri Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika hazabayo byombi: Izuba ryinshi imirima ihinduke ubutayu mu gice cy’uburengerazuba, mu gihe ibindi bice bisigaye bizarengerwa n’imyuzure n’amazi y’inyanja n’imiyaga idasanzwe.
- Australiya yo ishobora guhangana n’izuba ryinshi nka Afurika.
None se,abategetsi bahugiye mu biki?
Ibihugu byose bizi kano kaga kandi byemera ko guhangana n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere bishoboka gusa ari uko ibihugu bishyize hamwe , mu masezerano mboneka rimwe yabereye i Paris mu 2015 , bikaba byari yariyemeje gukomeza kwigora bagakora iyi bwabaga ubushyuhe bw’isi ntiburenze 1.5C.
Ubwongereza nibwo bwakiriye uyu mwaka inama y’abategetsi b’isi ,yiswe COP26, muei uku kwezi kwa 11/2021, aho ibihugu byatanze raporo y’imigambi yabyo yo kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bigakorwa vuba kugera muri 2030 umwaka ntarengwa wo gukemura iki kibazo.
Ibihugu byinshi byemeye ndetse kugabanya iyo myuka yose burundu ku buryo muri 2050 icyo kizaba kitakiri ikibazo, ibisigaye ni ukureba niba koko bizakorwa kuko bahora babeshyana uko bicaranye.
Abahanga bo bavuga ko ibyo bishoboka ari uko gusa Abategetsi bose, ibigo by’imirimo itandukanye ndetse n’abantu ku giti cyabo biyemeje guhinduka.
Wowe ku giti cyawe urasabwa iki?
Ibikomeye cyane ni ibisabwa Leta z’ibihugu hamwe n’ibigo by’imirimo itandukanye cyane cyane inganda, ariko abahanga mu bya siyansi bavuga ko wowe na njye hari ibyo twakora n’ubwo ari bito bito mu buzima bwacu bigatuma habaho kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere cyacu,bimwe mu byo usabwa ni ibi:
- Gabanya ingendo z’indege
- Irinde imodoka cyangwa ukoreshe imodoka zitanywa lisansi na mazutu,za zindi zisharijwa ku mashanyarazi
- Gura ibintu bikoresha umuriro muke,nk’imashini zo gufura mu gihe ugiye kugura inshya
- Niba washyushyaga mu nzu n’ibyuma bya chauffages,reka ibikoresha gaz,ubisimbuze ibikoresha amashanyarazi
- Kingira inzu yawe imbeho n’ubushyuhe bwinshi ukoresha uburyo bwabigenewe
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